基于证据理论的电网稳控系统可控容量不确定性分析

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2023.06.008

电力建设 ›› 2023, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (6): 70-78.doi: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2023.06.008

基于证据理论的电网稳控系统可控容量不确定性分析

李生虎¹(), 周慧敏¹(), 颜云松²(), 韩伟³(), 任建锋²(), 肖超³()

1.合肥工业大学电气与自动化工程学院,合肥市 230009
2.南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司),南京市 211106
3.国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院,郑州市 450052

收稿日期:2022-06-30 出版日期:2023-06-01 发布日期:2023-05-25
作者简介:李生虎(1974),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为电力系统概率建模与可靠性分析、风电并网电力系统分析与控制、特高压直流和柔性交流输电,E-mail:shenghuli@hfut.edu.cn;
周慧敏(1998),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为特高压直流和稳定控制系统可靠性,E-mail:2020110380@mail.hfut.edu.cn;
颜云松(1981),男,博士研究生,高级工程师,主要研究方向为电力系统安全稳定分析与控制,E-mail:yanyunsong@sgepri.sgcc.com.cn;
韩伟(1975),男,本科,教授级高级工程师,主要研究方向为电力系统继电保护,E-mail:haiwei@ha.sgcc.com.cn;
任建锋(1981),男,硕士,工程师,主要研究方向为电力系统自动化及安全稳定控制,E-mail:renjianfeng@sgepri.sgcc.com.cn;
肖超(1988),男,博士,主要研究方向为高电压控制与保护技术,E-mail:sngeet@163.com。
基金资助:
国家电网公司总部科技项目“超大规模电网安全稳定控制系统扁平化架构与实现技术研究”(52170221000U)

Reliability Analysis of Security and Stability Control Systems Based on Evidence Theory

LI Shenghu¹(), ZHOU Huimin¹(), YAN Yunsong²(), HAN Wei³(), REN Jianfeng²(), XIAO Chao³()

1. School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China
2. NARI Group Corporation (State Grid Electric Power Research Institute), Nanjing 211106, China
3. State Grid Henan Electric Power Research Institute, Zhengzhou 450052, China

Received:2022-06-30 Online:2023-06-01 Published:2023-05-25
Supported by:
Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(52170221000U)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

电网安全稳定控制系统(security and stability control system, SSCS)构成电网稳定防御第二道防线,其可控容量反映SSCS维持频率稳定的能力。站点控制路径可用性和可控容量波动性,增加了对SSCS可控容量评估的难度。文章提出了一种SSCS可控容量不确定性分析方法。基于执行站(executive station,EX)可控容量波动特性,采用证据理论方法建立EX基本可信度分配模型。改进SSCS概率加权邻接矩阵,建立站点控制概率模型以修正EX基本可信度分配。考虑站点控制容量与控制路径相关性,建立SSCS可控容量联合可信度分配模型。计算可控容量的似然累积分布(likelihood cumulative probability distribution,LCPD)和信任累积分布(belief cumulative probability distribution,BCPD),量化电网功率缺额下SSCS保全能力。通过与传统概率方法比较,验证了所提可控容量不确定分析方法的有效性。

关键词: 稳控系统(SSCS), 可控容量不确定, 证据理论, 站点可控概率, 似然累积分布(LCPD), 信任累积分布(BCPD)

Abstract:

Security and stability control systems (SSCSs) are the second type of defense system for power grids. Their controllable power demonstrates their capability of maintaining frequency stability. However, control path station availability and controllable power fluctuations increase the difficulty of assessing the controllable power of SSCSs. In this study, a controllable capacity uncertainty analysis method for SSCS is proposed. Based on the fluctuation characteristics of the controllable capacity at the executive station (EX), a basic reliability allocation model of the EX is established using evidence theory. A station control probability model is established by improving the probability-weighted adjacency matrix, and the basic confidence assignment of EX is modified. By considering the correlation between the station control capacity and the control path, a joint credibility allocation model for the controllable capacity of SSCSs is derived. The likelihood cumulative probability distribution (LCPD) and belief cumulative probability distribution (BCPD) of controllable capacity are defined. Numerical results show that the proposed model quantifies the preservation ability of the SSCS against a power shortage. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by comparing it with a traditional probabilistic method.

Key words: security and stability control system (SSCS), uncertainty controllable capacity, evidence theory, controllable probability of station, likelihood cumulative probability distribution (LCPD), belief cumulative probability distribution (BCPD)

中图分类号:

TM712

李生虎, 周慧敏, 颜云松, 韩伟, 任建锋, 肖超. 基于证据理论的电网稳控系统可控容量不确定性分析[J]. 电力建设, 2023, 44(6): 70-78.

LI Shenghu, ZHOU Huimin, YAN Yunsong, HAN Wei, REN Jianfeng, XIAO Chao. Reliability Analysis of Security and Stability Control Systems Based on Evidence Theory[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2023, 44(6): 70-78.

图/表 13

图1 电网稳控系统结构

Fig.1 SSCS structure of power grid

图2 稳控系统拓扑

Fig.2 Topology of SSCS

图3 SSCS可控容量累积分布计算

Fig.3 Calculation to cumulative distribution of controllable capacity of SSCS

图4 华东电网安全稳定控制系统结构

Fig.4 SSCS structure of power grid of East China

表1 SSCS站点和通信通道的可靠性参数

Table 1 Reliability parameters of SSCS stations and channels

表2 站点可控概率

Table 2 Controllable probability of stations

表3 4个焦元的v17、v19和v22可控容量可信度分配

Table 3 Reliability allocation of controllable capacity of v17, v19 and v22 of 4 focal elements

图5 v17可控容量累积概率分布

Fig.5 Cumulative probability distribution of controllable capacity of v17

表4 1个焦元的v17, v19和v22可控容量的联合可信度分配

Table 4 Joint reliability allocation of v17, v19, and v22 controllable capacity of one focal element

图6 计及路径相关的v17, v19和v22可控容量累积概率分布

Fig.6 Controllable capacity of cumulative probability distribution of v17, v19 and v22 based on path correlation

图7 SSCS可控容量累积概率分布

Fig.7 Cumulative probability distribution of controllable capacity of SSCS

图8 SSCS保全概率及不确定度计算

Fig.8 Preservation probability and uncertainty calculation of SSCS

表5 计算时间对比

Table 5 Comparison of calculation time

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基于证据理论的电网稳控系统可控容量不确定性分析

Reliability Analysis of Security and Stability Control Systems Based on Evidence Theory

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