Selection Framework of Photovoltaic Power Generation Project Investment Plans Based on Fuzzy VIKOR Method

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2016.02.007

Abstract

Abstract:

Investment plan selection is vital in the preparation stage of photovoltaic （PV） power generation project and the multi-criteria decision making （MCDM） methods play the important roles in the process of project plan selection. But the present MCDM methods have not considered the fuzzy nature of decision making and the conflict between the criteria, which decreases the evaluation quality of power generation project. Therefore, this paper introduces the fuzzy set theory （FST） and VIKOR method to construct the decision framework of PV project plan selection. We use fuzzy numbers instead of numerical values to decrease the loss of decision information； and adopt VIKOR method to determine compromise solutions for the problem that the decision results cannot be accepted by all the decision makers when several conflict indicators exist. The proposed framework is divided into 3 parts: the determination of alternative evaluation scheme, the determination of criteria weight based on expert group order relation, and the investment plan selection based on fuzzy VIKOR. These three parts are closely related and influence each other. Finally, taking a 100 MW ground grid-connected PV power station project as example, we verify the effectiveness and reasonableness of the proposed framework.

Key words: photovoltaic power generation project, investment plan selection, fuzzy set, VIKOR method, expert group order relation

CLC Number:

TM 71

WU Yunna, HU Yong. Selection Framework of Photovoltaic Power Generation Project Investment Plans Based on Fuzzy VIKOR Method[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2016, 37(2): 50-56.

References

［1］程泽，韩丽洁，李思宇，等.光伏发电功率的智能预测算法［J］.电力建设，2014，35（7）：34-39.
CHENG Ze，HAN Lijie，LI Siyu，et al.Intelligent forecasting algorithm for photovoltaic power generation ［J］.Electric Power Construction，2014，35（7）：34-39.
［2］杨杰，张琳.工程建设项目投资决策方法分析［J］.山东省青年管理干部学院学报，2010（2）：104-106.
YANG Jie，ZHANG Lin.Study on the investment decision of the engineering project［J］.Journal of Shandong Youth Administrative Cadres College，2010（2）：104-106.
［3］ARAGONS-BELTRN P，CHAPARRO-GONZLEZ F，PASTOR-FERRANDO J P，et al.An ANP-based approach for the selection of photovoltaic solar power plant investment projects［J］.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews，2010，14（1）：249-264.
［4］CHEN H H，KANG H Y，LEE A H I.Strategic selection of suitable projects for hybrid solar-wind power generation systems［J］.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews，2010，14（1）：413-421.
［5］张东方，杨健.基于层次分析法和熵权法的光伏发电项目投资风险模糊综合评价［J］.电气时代，2013（8）：40-42.
ZHANG Dongfang，YANG Jian.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of investment risk of photovoltaic power generation project based on analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method ［J］.Electric Age，2013（8）：40-42.
［6］李彦斌，于心怡，王致杰.采用灰色关联度与 TOPSIS 法的光伏发电项目风险评价研究［J］.电网技术，2013，37（6）：1514-1519.
LI Yanbin，YU Xinyi，WANG Zhijie.Risk assessment on photovoltaic power generation project by grey correlation analysis and TOPSIS method ［J］.Power System Technology，2013，37（6）：1514-1519.
［7］XIAO J，YAO Z，QU J，et al.Research on an optimal site selection model for desert photovoltaic power plants based on analytic hierarchy process and geographic information system［J］.Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy，2013，5（2）：023132.
［8］CARRION J A，ESTRELLA A E，DOLS F A，et al.Environmental decision-support systems for evaluating the carrying capacity of land areas：Optimal site selection for grid-connected photovoltaic power plants［J］.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews，2008，12（9）： 2358-2380.
［9］乌云娜，杨益晟，冯天天，等.风光互补电站宏观选址研究［J］.电网技术，2013，37（2）：319-326.
WU Yunna，YANG Yisheng，FENG Tiantian，et al.Macroscopic site selection of wind-solar hybrid power station ［J］.Power System Technology，2013，37（2）：319-326.
［10］ZADEH L A.The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning—I［J］.Information sciences，1975，8（3）： 199-249.
［11］OPRICOVIC S，TZENG G H.Compromise solution by MCDM methods：A comparative analysis of VIKOR and TOPSIS ［J］. European Journal of Operational Research，2004，156（2）：445-455.
［12］聂小红.基于群组的序关系和价值工程的钢铁企业备件供应物流成本研究［J］.物流技术，2013，32（12）：383-385.
NIE Xiaohong.Study on logistics cost in steel-making enterprise spare parts supply based on intra-cluster order relationship and VE ［J］.Logistics Technology，2013，32（12）：383-385.
［13］KAYA T，KAHRAMAN C.Multicriteria renewable energy planning using an integrated fuzzy VIKOR & AHP methodology：The case of Istanbul［J］.Energy，2010，35（6）：2517-2527.
［14］邹建平，吴应宇.基于模糊 TOPSIS 方法的区域物流基础设施布局方案评价研究［J］.东南大学学报：哲学社会科学版，2011，13（1）：33-36.
ZOU Jianping，WU Yingyu.A study of the fuzzy TOPSIS-based regional logistics：an analysis of the regional logistics facilities layout ［J］.Journal of Southeast University：Philosophy and Social Science，2011，13（1）：33-36.
［15］刘鸿雁，阎涛，王光远.基于 AHP 和 VIKOR 算法的评标方法研究［J］.技术经济， 2009，28（5）：32-34.
LIU Hongyan，YAN Tao，WANG Guangyuan.Study on bidding evaluation method based on AHP and VIKOR algorithm ［J］.Technology Economics， 2009，28（5）：32-34.