Reliability Analysis of Security and Stability Control Systems Based on Evidence Theory

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2023.06.008

Abstract

Abstract:

Security and stability control systems (SSCSs) are the second type of defense system for power grids. Their controllable power demonstrates their capability of maintaining frequency stability. However, control path station availability and controllable power fluctuations increase the difficulty of assessing the controllable power of SSCSs. In this study, a controllable capacity uncertainty analysis method for SSCS is proposed. Based on the fluctuation characteristics of the controllable capacity at the executive station (EX), a basic reliability allocation model of the EX is established using evidence theory. A station control probability model is established by improving the probability-weighted adjacency matrix, and the basic confidence assignment of EX is modified. By considering the correlation between the station control capacity and the control path, a joint credibility allocation model for the controllable capacity of SSCSs is derived. The likelihood cumulative probability distribution (LCPD) and belief cumulative probability distribution (BCPD) of controllable capacity are defined. Numerical results show that the proposed model quantifies the preservation ability of the SSCS against a power shortage. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by comparing it with a traditional probabilistic method.

Key words: security and stability control system (SSCS), uncertainty controllable capacity, evidence theory, controllable probability of station, likelihood cumulative probability distribution (LCPD), belief cumulative probability distribution (BCPD)

CLC Number:

TM712

LI Shenghu, ZHOU Huimin, YAN Yunsong, HAN Wei, REN Jianfeng, XIAO Chao. Reliability Analysis of Security and Stability Control Systems Based on Evidence Theory[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2023, 44(6): 70-78.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig.1 SSCS structure of power grid

Fig.2 Topology of SSCS

Fig.3 Calculation to cumulative distribution of controllable capacity of SSCS

Fig.4 SSCS structure of power grid of East China

Table 1 Reliability parameters of SSCS stations and channels

Table 2 Controllable probability of stations

Table 3 Reliability allocation of controllable capacity of v17, v19 and v22 of 4 focal elements

Fig.5 Cumulative probability distribution of controllable capacity of v17

Table 4 Joint reliability allocation of v17, v19, and v22 controllable capacity of one focal element

Fig.6 Controllable capacity of cumulative probability distribution of v17, v19 and v22 based on path correlation

Fig.7 Cumulative probability distribution of controllable capacity of SSCS

Fig.8 Preservation probability and uncertainty calculation of SSCS

Table 5 Comparison of calculation time

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