关键词: 1 000 MW级火电项目, 风险元传递, 蒙特卡洛模拟, BP神经网络

Abstract:

There are many risks in the early stage of the construction of 1 000 MW level thermal power projects, and the prevention and control of these risks are critical to investors. Therefore, risk elements transmission model was built, which could provide decision-making basis for risk managers. According to the characteristics of risk elements in the early stage of 1 000 MW level thermal power project, the distribution of risk elements were analyzed. On this basis, the risk elements transmission model in the early stage of 1 000 MW level thermal power project was built to determine the occurrence probability of risk elements in the early stage by using Monte Carlo simulation method, and to discuss the risk elements transmission structure in the early stage of thermal power projects. Then the risk elements transmission algorithm with BP neural network was established in the early stage of thermal power projects, the example simulation was implemented to build a learning sample set, with which the network was trained and tested on Matlab 7.0 platform. The test results have shown that the model is correct and feasible, which can effectively control the project investment risk.

Key words: 1 000 MW level thermal power project, risk elements transmission, Monte Carlo simulation, BP neural network