关键词: 碳中和, 电能替代, 发展路径, 综合评估模型

Abstract:

Carbon peak and carbon neutralization targets are momentous strategical decisions issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council to coordinate the two overall situations at home and abroad. As the main form of clean energy utilization, electrification is one of the main pathways to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization in China. This paper reviews the development of electrification in China and abroad, and summarizes the challenges in China according to the development status. In view of the lack of theoretical and analytical tools in the current planning for electrical energy substitution path, a macro and micro coupled integrated assessment model framework of electrification is proposed in this paper. The first is to build a database of typical industries to provide a basis for the analysis of electrical energy substitution potential in each industry. The second is to obtain the Chinese parameters of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the macro level and export them as socio-economic development scenarios. The third is to obtain the Chinese technical parameters to achieve parameter calibration at the micro level. The fourth is to couple the macro and micro markets to establish a dynamic feedback and two-wheel drive mechanism. This study is helpful to improve the theoretical system of electric energy substitution and provide scientific methodology support for the steady and orderly implementation of electrification in the future.

Key words: carbon neutralization, electrification policy, development pathway, integrated assessment model