Evaluation of Transmission Reliability Margin Taking into Account the Time-Varying Correlation Characteristics of Wind-Solar Output

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2021.09.009

Abstract

Abstract:

In the context of wind-solar grid integration, in order to accurately evaluate wind-solar correlation output and system transmission reliability margin (TRM), a TRM evaluation method taking into account the time-varying characteristics of wind-solar output is proposed. First, considering the time-varying correlation characteristics and seasonal characteristics of wind-solar output, a method based on the time-varying Copula function for wind-solar 24h joint output scene generation is proposed. The generated scene provides the basis for accurate TRM evaluation. Then, while considering the characteristics of the TRM time scale, the GlueVaR measurement system is introduced to measure the risk of transmission capacity deficiency, and a TRM expected net return model that distinguishes the different risk preferences of decision makers is constructed. Finally, applying wind-solar scene set, the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate the system's time-series operation scene set, and the IEEE-RTS system is used to solve the model using optimization algorithms. Compared with previous methods, the simulation results indicated that the proposed method can not only improve the accuracy of wind-solar joint output scene generation, but also guarantee the reliable and economic operation of power system and realize differentiated evaluation of TRM.

Key words: transmission reliability margin, time-varying correlation characteristics, time-varying Copula, wind-solar 24h joint output scene, GlueVaR

CLC Number:

TM712

GAO Jianwei, GUO Guiyu, LANG Yutong, GAO Fangjie, MA Zeyang. Evaluation of Transmission Reliability Margin Taking into Account the Time-Varying Correlation Characteristics of Wind-Solar Output[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2021, 42(9): 85-95.

Figures/Tables 16

Fig.1 Typical daily power output

Table 1 Comparison of goodness of fit

Fig.2 Construction of joint output distribution function

Fig.3 Flowchart of system operation scenario set generation

Fig.4 Generation and resistance of transmission capacity drops

Fig.5 IEEE-RTS system diagram

Fig.6 Example solution process

Fig.7 Typical scene of wind-solar joint output

Table 2 Determination of the static optimal Copula function

Table 3 Distance values of different scene generation methods

Fig.8 Transmission capacity drop value at each moment in typical scenarios

Fig.9 TRM and corresponding expected net income

Fig.10 Iterative process under different risk preferences

Table 4 Optimal TRM values and expected net profit values under different risk preferences

Table 5 Expected net profit values when setting different TRM under risk aversion

Table 6 Comparison of different TRM calculation methods

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