• CSCD核心库收录期刊
  • 中文核心期刊
  • 中国科技核心期刊

电力建设 ›› 2020, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (8): 57-67.doi: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2020.08.008

• 电动汽车参与电网调度的关键技术·栏目主持 傅质馨副教授· • 上一篇    下一篇

基于实时出行需求和交通路况的电动汽车充电负荷预测

吴钉捷, 李晓露   

  1. 上海电力大学电气工程学院,上海市 200090
  • 出版日期:2020-08-07 发布日期:2020-08-07
  • 作者简介:吴钉捷(1995),男,硕士研究生,通信作者,主要研究方向为人工智能在电力系统中的应用; 李晓露(1971),女,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为电网调度自动化、电力企业信息集成等。
  • 基金资助:
    国家电网公司科技项目(SGTJDK00DWJS1900100)

Charging Load Prediction of Electric Vehicle According to Real-Time Travel Demand and Traffic Conditions

WU Dingjie, LI Xiaolu   

  1. School of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China
  • Online:2020-08-07 Published:2020-08-07
  • Supported by:
    This work is supported by State Grid Corporation of China Research Program (No.SGTJDK00DWJS1900100).

摘要: 现有的电动汽车充电负荷预测研究中缺乏对用户出行行为和交通路况的精确描述,为此构建了时空图谱注意力网络,对基于城市兴趣点的出行需求和道路交通流量的时空分布进行学习和预测,并计及了日期类型、天气温度和交通事件的影响。通过基于出行时间指数(travel time index,TTI)的Dijkstra算法得到耗时最短的行驶路径,并建立了计及交通路况和气温影响的电动汽车能耗模型以及考虑距离远近和综合充电费用的充电站选择决策模型。基于西安市二环区域的实际出行需求和交通数据,对私家车、出租车和网约车3种用途电动汽车的充电需求进行了预测,并分析了出行需求变化对城市各网格空间内充电站快、慢充负荷的影响,为充电设施的规划提供了参考和依据。

关键词: 电动汽车, 充电负荷, 时空图谱注意力网络, 城市兴趣点, 出行需求预测

Abstract: Existing research on charging load prediction of electric vehicle (EV) lacks accurate descriptions of user travel behaviors and traffic conditions. Therefore, a spatio-temporal graph attention network is constructed to learn and predict the spatio-temporal distribution of travel demand considering urban points of interest and road traffic flow, taking into account the effect of date type, weather temperature and traffic events. The Dijkstra algorithm based on the travel time index (TTI) is used to obtain the shortest travel time. An EV energy consumption model that takes into account the impact of traffic conditions and air temperature, and a charging station selection decision model that considers distance and comprehensive charging cost, are both established. According to the actual travel demand and traffic data of the second ring area in Xian, the charging demand of electric vehicles for private cars, taxis and internet-hailed vehicles is predicted, and the changes in travel demand are analyzed for charging stations in various grid spaces in the city. The EV charging load prediction provides a reference and basis for the planning of charging facilities.

Key words: electric vehicle, charging load, spatio-temporal map attention network, urban points of interest, travel demand forecast

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