考虑日内来水不确定和电网断面约束的梯级水电日前调度

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2020.09.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

日内来水的不确定性和传输通道断面约束是影响大容量梯级水电日前调度计划制定的重要因素。为提高日前调度对不同来水情景的适应性,首先在日均径流预测基础上,结合历史数据分析与概率分布拟合获取日内来水量的概率密度函数,通过准确刻画各时段来水规律,建立不同情景下的梯级发电量偏差来反映各时刻来水的不确定性。其次,在模型断面约束中引入模糊变量,并通过离线仿真将断面约束转化为发电机有功出力约束。针对含梯级电站发电量偏差的日前优化调度模型,采用多核并行动态规划算法进行求解,保证求解的收敛性及求解效率。最后,以西南地区某梯级水电站接入IEEE 39节点系统为例,验证了所提算法的合理性和可行性,所得调度计划在4种典型来水场景下均未出现水位及断面功率越限。

关键词: 梯级水电, 不确定性, 模糊机会约束, 动态规划

Abstract:

The uncertainties of daily interval flow and the restriction of the transmission section are important factors that affect the day-ahead dispatching plan of large-capacity cascade hydropower stations. In order to improve the adaptability of the daily dispatching to different inflow scenarios, the probability density function of daily interval flow is obtained on the basis of the forecast daily average interval flow firstly, combining historical data analysis and probability distribution fitting. Through accurately describing the rule of interval flow in each period, the deviation of cascade power generation under different scenarios is established to reflect the uncertainty of the interval flow at each period. Secondly, fuzzy variables are established to express the complex section constraint relationship in the day-ahead dispatching, and the section constraint is converted to the generator’s active power constraint through off-line simulation. The multi-core parallel dynamic programming algorithm is adopted to solve the day-ahead dispatching model to ensure the convergence and efficiency of the solution. Finally, the rationality and feasibility of the proposed algorithm are verified through the example of cascade hydropower stations in southwest China connected to IEEE 39-node system, and the water level and transmission section power are not out of limits in the four typical inflow scenarios.

Key words: cascade hydropower, uncertainty, fuzzy chance constraint, dynamic programming

中图分类号:

TM61

马宇航, 黄媛, 刘俊勇, 路亮. 考虑日内来水不确定和电网断面约束的梯级水电日前调度[J]. 电力建设, 2020, 41(9): 39-49.

MA Yuhang, HUANG Yuan, LIU Junyong, LU Liang. Day-ahead Dispatching of Cascade Hydropower Stations Considering Daily Interval Flow Uncertainty and the Section Constraint of Power Grid[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2020, 41(9): 39-49.

图/表 13

图1 并行动态规划算法流程

Fig.1 Process of parallel dynamic programming algorithm

图2 改进的IEEE 39节点系统

Fig.2 Improved IEEE 39-node system

图3 梯级水电站径流量区间频率分布

Fig.3 Range frequency distribution of cascade hydropower station

图4 断面功率拟合结果与误差

Fig.4 Result and error of section power fitting

表1 不同场景及仿真结果

Table 1 Different application scenarios and simulation results

图5 不同场景出力-负荷偏差越限量

Fig.5 Excess of output-load deviation in different scenarios

图6 不同场景断面传输功率越限量

Fig.6 Excess of section active power in different scenarios

图7 不同δ值下的梯级平均总发电量和梯级发电风险

Fig.7 Average total hydroelectricity and cascade risk under different δ values

图8 不同η值下梯级平均总发电量

Fig.8 Average total hydroelectricity under different η values

表2 不同CPU核心数的计算效率

Table 2 Computing efficiency of different number of CPU cores

表B1 电站基本参数

TableB1 Parameters of cascade hydropower

图B1 梯级水电面临负荷

Fig.B1 Facing load of cascade hydropower stations

图B2 3种概率分布函数拟合结果示意图

Fig.B2 Fitting results of three probability distributions

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