计及风电相关性的区域间可用输电能力概率评估

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2021.07.014

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

大规模风电并网给电力系统区域间可用输电能力(available transfer capability, ATC)评估带来了新的挑战,为更加准确地评估高风电渗透率不确定性条件下的区域间ATC,文章提出了一种计及风电空间相关性的ATC概率评估方法。首先,利用条件概率原理对历史数据进行处理,并应用Copula函数对风电相关性进行建模;其次,区域间ATC的评估过程涉及到最大输电能力和现有输电协议的计算,因此提出一种ATC双层优化模型,在此基础上,利用Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)最优条件,双层模型即转化为均衡约束的数学规划(mathematica program with equilibrium constraint, MPEC)模型;再次,再将MPEC模型转化为混合整数二阶锥规划问题;最后,采用蒙特卡罗仿真对计及风电相关性的区域间ATC进行概率评估,并以IEEE 30节点系统为例,分析风电相关性对区域间ATC的影响,验证所提模型的正确性和有效性。

关键词: 电力系统, 可用输电能力(ATC), 风电相关性, 双层模型, 蒙特卡罗仿真

Abstract:

Large scale wind power integration brings new challenges to the assessment of available transfer capability (ATC) of power system. In order to evaluate the ATC under the uncertain conditions of high wind power permeability more accurately, a method is proposed to evaluate the probability of ATC that takes the correlation of wind power into consideration. Firstly, the historical data are processed using the conditional probability principle and the wind correlation is modeled by the Copula function. Secondly, the evaluation process of ATC involves the calculation of the total transfer capability (TTC) and the existing transfer commitments (ETC), so this paper proposes a bi-level optimization model, on the basis of which, using the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimal conditions, the bi-level model is transformed into mathematical program with equilibrium constraint (MPEC) model. Then, the MPEC model is transformed into a mixed integer second-order cone planning problem. Finally, the Monte-carlo simulation is used to evaluate the probability of inter-regional ATC, and the IEEE 30-bus system is used as an example to analyze the influence of wind power correlation on the assessment of inter-regional ATC and verify the correctness and validity of the proposed model.

Key words: power system, available transfer capacity(ATC), correlated wind power, bi-level model, Monte-Carlo simulation

中图分类号:

TM72

宋晓喆, 李佳奇, 孙福寿, 傅吉悦, 许铎. 计及风电相关性的区域间可用输电能力概率评估[J]. 电力建设, 2021, 42(7): 118-126.

SONG Xiaozhe, LI Jiaqi, SUN Fushou, FU Jiyue, XU Duo. Probability Evaluation of Available Transfer Capability Considering Wind Power Correlation[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2021, 42(7): 118-126.

图/表 12

图1 ATC计算流程

Fig.1 Flowchart of ATC calculation

图2 样本风电场景

Fig.2 Wind power scenarios of sample

图3 样本风电场景概率密度曲线

Fig.3 Probability density curve of wind power scenarios

图4 计及风电场间出力相关性时,风电场2出力的概率密度

Fig.4 Probability density of wind power output of wind farm 2 considering the correlation between wind farms

图5 计及相关性的风电场景生成

Fig.5 Samples out of wind power output with correlation

图6 IEEE 30节点标准算例系统结构

Fig.6 Structure of IEEE 30-bus system

表1 ATC统计指标结果对比

Table 1 Result comparison applying different ATC indices

图7 不同场景下ATC概率密度分布曲线

Fig.7 Probability density curve of ATC under different scenarios

图8 风电场集成在送电区域不同相关系数下ATC概率密度分布曲线

Fig.8 Probability density curves of ATC under different correlation coefficients when wind farms are integrated in power supply area

图9 风电场集成在受电区域不同相关系数下ATC概率密度分布曲线

Fig.9 Probability density curves of ATC under different correlation coefficients when wind farms are integrated in the load area

表2 ATC统计指标结果对比 (案例1)

Table 2 Result comparison applying different ATC indices (Case 1)

表3 ATC统计指标结果对比 (案例2)

Table 3 Result comparison applying different ATC indices (Case 2)

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