计及时空相关性的分布式风电接入配电网风险评估

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2021.07.015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着分布式电源的大量接入,为研究分布式风电的相关性对配电网风险的影响,提出了一种计及时空相关性的分布式风电接入配电网风险评估方法。首先,考虑风电出力在不同季节的时空相关性,基于Copula函数和马尔科夫模型建立风电出力两阶段四季场景生成模型;其次,为提高风险评估的效率,基于红黑树结构建立动态故障集,通过查找、存储已抽样状态序列及其评估结果,避免同一状态反复调用程序计算潮流;最后,在IEEE 33节点配电网系统中计算配电网过电压、低电压、线路过载和失负荷运行风险指标,并基于层次分析法建立综合运行风险指标,合理全面地评估了强相关性风电接入配电网带来的风险,验证了所提模型和方法的有效性和准确性。

Abstract:

With the massive access of distributed power generation, in order to study the impact of the correlation of distributed wind power on the risk assessment of the distribution network, a risk assessment method for distributed power generations connected to distribution network considering temporal-spatial correlation is proposed. Firstly, considering the temporal-spatial correlation of wind power generators in different seasons, a two-stage wind power scenario generation model considering temporal-spatial correlation in different seasons is established on the basis of Copula function and Markov chain model. Secondly, in order to improve the computational efficiency of risk assessment, the dynamic fault set is established on the basis of the red-black tree structure. By searching and storing the sampled state sequence and its evaluation results, it avoids repeatedly calling the optimal power flow in the same state, and improves the speed of state evaluation. Finally, the operational risk indices such as over-voltage, low-voltage, line overload and loss of load are calculated in IEEE 33-bus distribution network system, and the comprehensive operational risk indices are established on the basis of analytic hierarchy process. The risk caused by strongly correlated wind power connected to distribution network is reasonably and comprehensively evaluated, and the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model and method are verified.

Key words: distributed wind power generation, temporal-spatial correlation, Copula function, Markov chain, red-black tree

中图分类号:

TM744

何昭辉, 曹锐, 周成, 刘海鹏. 计及时空相关性的分布式风电接入配电网风险评估[J]. 电力建设, 2021, 42(7): 127-136.

HE Zhaohui, CAO Rui, ZHOU Cheng, LIU Haipeng. Operation Risk Evaluation on Distributed Wind Power Connected to Distribution Network Considering Temporal-Spatial Correlation[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2021, 42(7): 127-136.

图/表 17

图1 红黑树的简化结构

Fig.1 Simplified structure of red-black tree

图A1 运行风险评估流程图

Fig.A1 Flow chart of operation risk assessment

图2 IEEE 33节点配电网系统结构图

Fig.2 Structure of IEEE 33-node distribution network

图3 风电各月平均出力图

Fig.3 Monthly average output of wind power

表1 不同季节风电出力相关系数

Table 1 Correlations of wind power outputs in different seasons

图4 风电出力联合概率密度函数

Fig.4 Joint probability density function of two wind farms

表2 Copula函数评价指标值

Table 2 Evaluation indices of different Copula functions

图A2 夏季风电出力不同Copula概率密度函数图

Fig.A2 Different copula probability density functions oftwo wind farms in summer

图A3 春季、秋季和冬季风电出力联合概率密度函数图

Fig.A3 Joint probability density function of two wind farms in spring, fall and winter

图5 风电模拟出力的自相关特性

Fig.5 Autocorrelation of simulated output of two wind farms

图A4 春季、夏季、秋季和冬季典型风电出力场景

Fig.A4 Typical wind power scenarios in spring, summer, fall and winter

图6 风险指标收敛过程

Fig.6 Convergence process of risk assessment indices

表3 配电网风险评估指标

Table 3 Risk assessment results of distribution network

表4 系统计算时间

Table 4 Computing time of system

图7 配电网运行风险指标概率分布

Fig.7 Probability distribution functions of operational risk indices of distribution network

图8 不同风电接入容量的系统运行风险评估结果对比

Fig.8 Comparison of risk indices with different wind power capacity

图9 风电容量区间细化后的风险评估结果对比

Fig.9 Comparison of risk assessment results after the refinement of wind power capacity range

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