考虑碳排放的综合能源系统“结构-型号-容量”优化模型

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2022.07.004

电力建设 ›› 2022, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (7): 37-47.doi: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2022.07.004

• 面向新型电力系统的灵活性资源发展关键技术及应用·栏目主持鞠立伟副教授、谭忠富教授· • 上一篇下一篇

考虑碳排放的综合能源系统“结构-型号-容量”优化模型

李国堂¹, 宋福浩¹(), 陈杰¹, 刁利¹, 王永利², 郭远征¹, 刘桢梁¹

1.国核电力规划设计研究院有限公司,北京市 100095
2.华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市 102206

收稿日期:2022-02-25 出版日期:2022-07-01 发布日期:2022-06-30
通讯作者: 宋福浩 E-mail:17862802078@163.com
作者简介:李国堂(1978),男,硕士,高级工程师,主要研究方向为能源投资、综合能源系统;
陈杰(1982),男,硕士,高级工程师,主要研究方向为能源投资;
刁利(1979),女,硕士,高级工程师,主要研究方向为能源投资;
王永利(1980),男,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为综合能源系统优化;
郭远征(1992),男,硕士,主要研究方向为能源投资;
刘桢梁(1993),男,硕士,主要研究方向为能源投资。
基金资助:
北京市社会科学基金项目(18GLB034)

Structure-Model-Capacity Optimization Model of Integrated Energy System Considering Carbon Emissions

LI Guotang¹, SONG Fuhao¹(), CHEN Jie¹, DIAO Li¹, WANG Yongli², GUO Yuanzheng¹, LIU Zhenliang¹

1. State Nuclear Electric Power Plannning Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 100095, China
2. School of Economic and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Received:2022-02-25 Online:2022-07-01 Published:2022-06-30
Contact: SONG Fuhao E-mail:17862802078@163.com
Supported by:
Social Science Foundation of Beijing(18GLB034)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

综合能源系统能源结构多样,同种设备的不同型号之间价格、性能差异性大,如何在规划阶段确定合理的能源结构、设备型号组合及装机容量是实现运行阶段节约成本的前提。文章在考虑二氧化碳排放量的基础上研究“能源结构-设备型号-装机容量”规划优化模型。首先,构建基于最近邻法(K-nearest-neighbors,KNN)的实例推理技术得出适合拟建设园区的能源结构;其次,构建“外层选型,内层定容”的双层优化框架,考虑碳排放阶梯成本,以全寿命周期总成本最低为优化目标,利用蚁群算法-遗传算法相结合的方式求解最优设备型号组合及最优装机容量。最后,通过算例分析验证所提模型在降低成本上的有效性。

关键词: 能源结构优化, 设备型号优化, 设备容量优化, 实例推理技术, 碳排放, 综合能源系统

Abstract:

The energy structure of the integrated energy system is diverse, and the prices and performances of different models of the same equipment vary greatly. How to determine a reasonable energy structure, equipment model combination and installed capacity in the planning stage is the premise to achieve cost savings in the operation stage. This paper studies the optimization model of "energy structure-equipment model-installed capacity" planning considering carbon dioxide emissions. Firstly, a case-based reasoning technique based on K-nearest-neighbors (KNN) to obtain the energy structure suitable for the proposed park is constructed. Considering the carbon emission ladder cost, and taking the lowest total life cycle cost as the optimization objective, the combination of ant colony algorithm and genetic algorithm is used to solve the optimal equipment model combination and the optimal installed capacity. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed model in reducing costs is verified by example analysis.

Key words: energy structure optimization, equipment model optimization, equipment capacity optimization, case based reasoning technology, carbon emission, integrated energy system

中图分类号:

TM743

李国堂, 宋福浩, 陈杰, 刁利, 王永利, 郭远征, 刘桢梁. 考虑碳排放的综合能源系统“结构-型号-容量”优化模型[J]. 电力建设, 2022, 43(7): 37-47.

LI Guotang, SONG Fuhao, CHEN Jie, DIAO Li, WANG Yongli, GUO Yuanzheng, LIU Zhenliang. Structure-Model-Capacity Optimization Model of Integrated Energy System Considering Carbon Emissions[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2022, 43(7): 37-47.

图/表 16

图1 协同优化框架示意

Fig.1 Illustration of the collaborative optimization framework

图2 KNN实例推理技术

Fig.2 Case-based reasoning technology based on KNN

表1 特征因子

Table 1 Characteristic factor

图3 “外层选型,内层定容”优化框架

Fig.3 Optimization framework of "outer layer selection, inner layer constant volume"

表A1 实例库场景集

Table A1 Example database of integrated energy system planning

表A2 实例库特征因子集

Table A2 Example database of integrated energy system planning

表A3 场景相似度值

Table A3 Scene similarity value

表A4 仿真设备参数

Table A4 Simulation equipment parameters

图4 算法迭代曲线

Fig.4 Iteration curve of scenarios

表2 场景1规划仿真结果

Table 2 Planning simulation results of scenario 1

表3 场景2规划仿真结果

Table 3 Planning simulation results of scenario 2

表4 规划场景1和2经济性对比

Table 4 Economic comparison of planning scenario 1 and 2

图5 场景1与场景2的碳排放量

Fig.5 Carbon emissions of scenario 1 and 2

图6 能源购置成本分析

Fig.6 Analysis of energy purchase cost

表5 场景3规划仿真结果

Table 5 Planning simulation results of scenario 3

表6 规划场景1和3的经济性对比

Table 6 Economic comparison of planning scenario 1 and 3

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考虑碳排放的综合能源系统“结构-型号-容量”优化模型

Structure-Model-Capacity Optimization Model of Integrated Energy System Considering Carbon Emissions

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