考虑冗余系统时变故障率和更新过程的MMC可靠性建模及其应用

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2022.08.010

电力建设 ›› 2022, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (8): 102-112.doi: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2022.08.010

• 直流电网关键装备·栏目主持宋强副教授、余占清副教授、赵彪副教授· • 上一篇下一篇

考虑冗余系统时变故障率和更新过程的MMC可靠性建模及其应用

吴科成¹(), 王凤学²(), 吴晗²(), 曲毅³(), 董红⁴(), 欧阳森²()

1.广东电网有限责任公司,广州市 510600
2.华南理工大学电力学院,广州市 510640
3.广东电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心,广州市 510030
4.广东电网广州供电局,广州市 510610

收稿日期:2021-12-22 出版日期:2022-08-01 发布日期:2022-08-05
通讯作者: 王凤学 E-mail:wukecheng@gd.csg.cn;1329045309@qq.com;wuuuh1669@163.com;quyi@gd.csg.cn;1400166077@qq.com;ouyangsen@scut.cn
作者简介:吴科成(1982),男,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事电网规划、节能环保工作,E-mail: wukecheng@gd.csg.cn
吴晗(1997),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为配电网能耗分析及网损分摊,E-mail: wuuuh1669@163.com
曲毅(1971),男,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事线损管理、节能环保工作,E-mail: quyi@gd.csg.cn
董红(1982),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为电网规划与系统分析,E-mail: 1400166077@qq.com
欧阳森(1974),男,博士,副研究员,主要研究方向为配电网规划与运行、电能质量分析与控制,E-mail: ouyangsen@scut.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(52177085)

MMC Reliability Modeling Considering Time-Varying Failure Rate and Renewal Process of Redundant System and Its Application

WU Kecheng¹(), WANG Fengxue²(), WU Han²(), QU Yi³(), DONG Hong⁴(), OUYANG Sen²()

1. Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510600, China
2. School of Electric Power, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China
3. Power Grid Planning and Research Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510030, China
4. Guangzhou Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510610, China

Received:2021-12-22 Online:2022-08-01 Published:2022-08-05
Contact: WANG Fengxue E-mail:wukecheng@gd.csg.cn;1329045309@qq.com;wuuuh1669@163.com;quyi@gd.csg.cn;1400166077@qq.com;ouyangsen@scut.cn
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(52177085)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对现有模块化多电平换流器(modular multi-level converter, MMC)可靠性计算中未充分考虑冗余系统故障率时变性和缺乏考虑更新过程,从而不能科学衡量MMC可靠性的问题,提出了一种考虑MMC冗余系统故障率时变性并引入N阶梯更新过程的MMC可靠性建模方法。首先,从冗余程度、冗余方式角度细化MMC冗余系统的分类,建立可靠度与故障率间的数学解析关系来量化表征冗余系统故障率时变的变化特性,分析传统马尔科夫模型所计算的冗余系统故障率过小而导致可靠性计算结果偏高的不合理问题;其次,利用N阶梯故障率取代传统MMC冗余系统的时变故障率,并同时引入更新过程理论推导MMC的平均无故障工作时间(mean time to failure, MTTF)和稳态可用度公式,以此修正传统MMC可靠性参数计算结果偏高的问题。最后,以半桥子模块的MMC为例,验证了所提方法的有效性和可行性。

关键词: 可靠性建模, 冗余系统, N阶梯更新过程, 模块化多电平换流器(MMC), 时变故障率

Abstract:

In view of the problem that the existing research on reliability of modular multi-level converter (MMC) does not fully consider time-varying failure rate of redundant system, and lacks the evaluation method for renewal process, which can not scientifically measure the reliability of MMC, this paper proposes an MMC reliability modeling method considering the time-varying failure rate and N-step renewal process of redundant system. Firstly, from the perspective of redundancy degree and redundancy mode, the classification of redundant systems is refined. According to the classification above, the mathematical analytical relationship between reliability and failure rate is established, which indicates the characteristics of the time-varying failure rate of redundant system. It is pointed out that the failure rate of redundant system obtained by traditional methods is too small. Then, N-step failure rate is used to replace the time-varying failure rate of MMC redundant system. At the same time, the renewal process theory is introduced to deduce the mean time to failure (MTTF) and steady-state availability formula of MMC, so as to correct the problem that the calculation results of traditional methods are too high. Finally, the converter of half-bridge sub-module is taken as an example to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

Key words: reliability modeling, redundant system, N-step renewal process, modular multi-level converter (MMC), time-varying failure rate

中图分类号:

TM461

吴科成, 王凤学, 吴晗, 曲毅, 董红, 欧阳森. 考虑冗余系统时变故障率和更新过程的MMC可靠性建模及其应用[J]. 电力建设, 2022, 43(8): 102-112.

WU Kecheng, WANG Fengxue, WU Han, QU Yi, DONG Hong, OUYANG Sen. MMC Reliability Modeling Considering Time-Varying Failure Rate and Renewal Process of Redundant System and Its Application[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2022, 43(8): 102-112.

图/表 13

图1 冗余系统分类

Fig.1 Classification of redundant systems

图2 是否考虑故障率时变对比

Fig.2 Time-varying comparison considering failure rate or not

图3 时变故障率均值增量占比变化

Fig.3 Proportion change of the mean increment of time-varying failure rate

图4 N阶梯故障率变化曲线

Fig.4 The curve of N-step failure rate

图5 N阶梯更新过程MMC停运模型

Fig.5 The MMC outage model of N-step renewal process

图6 计算流程

Fig.6 The calculation flowchart

图7 基于半桥子模块的MMC拓扑结构

Fig.7 MMC topology based on half-bridge sub-module

表1 MMC内部元件故障率

Table 1 Failure rate of the internal components in MMC

图8 MMC冗余系统故障率选择对比

Fig.8 Comparison of the selection of the failure rates of MMC redundant system

表2 可靠性参数对比

Table 2 Comparison of reliability parameters

表3 半桥子模块冗余度的影响

Table 3 The impact of redundancy

表A1 冗余系统配置

Table A1 Failure rate of the internal components in MMC

图A1 4种冗余系统故障率对比

Fig.A1 Comparison of failure rate of four redundant systems

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考虑冗余系统时变故障率和更新过程的MMC可靠性建模及其应用

MMC Reliability Modeling Considering Time-Varying Failure Rate and Renewal Process of Redundant System and Its Application

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