考虑爬坡灵活性的电力系统可靠性评估方法

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2023.07.015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对高比例新能源电力系统,通过分析电力电量平衡和爬坡平衡原理,提出电力系统运行时所处的4种组合状态。研究考虑爬坡灵活性的可靠性指标,扩展了原有可靠性指标的适用性。在此基础上,通过修正负荷的方法确定系统开机容量,以确保同时满足系统电力需求和爬坡需求,并留有足够的热备用。建立了关于机组、负荷以及爬坡需求的联合概率密度模型,采用生产模拟技术实现对提出指标的计算。最后利用可靠性测试算例,构建了多种新能源占比场景,验证所提指标和方法的有效性。仿真结果表明高比例新能源背景下,传统可靠性指标结果将偏向保守,建议使用考虑爬坡灵活性的可靠性指标。

关键词: 高比例新能源, 可靠性, 爬坡灵活性, 负荷修正

Abstract:

Four power balance states are proposed for a power system with high penetration of new energy by analyzing the principles of power, electricity balance, and climbing balance. A reliability index that considers climbing flexibility is studied, which extends the applicability of the original reliability index. On this basis, the starting capacity of the system is determined by load correction to ensure that the power demand and climbing demand of the system are satisfied simultaneously, and sufficient hot backup is reserved. A joint probability density model of the unit, load and climbing demand is established, and production simulation technology is used to calculate the proposed indicators. Finally, a reliability test example is used to create a variety of new energy proportion scenarios to verify the effectiveness of the proposed indexes and methods. The results show that in the context of a high proportion of new energy, traditional reliability indexes are conservative, and it is recommended to use reliability indexes that consider flexibility.

Key words: high penetration of new energy, reliability, climbing flexibility, load correction

中图分类号:

TM73

彭羽, 周勤勇, 丁保迪. 考虑爬坡灵活性的电力系统可靠性评估方法[J]. 电力建设, 2023, 44(7): 142-150.

PENG Yu, ZHOU Qinyong, DING Baodi. Reliability Evaluation Method of Power System Considering Climbing Flexibility[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2023, 44(7): 142-150.

图/表 12

图1 电力平衡图

Fig.1 Power balance diagram

图2 爬坡平衡图

Fig.2 Climbing balance diagram

图3 电力系统状态

Fig.3 Power system status

图4 可靠性指标评估流程

Fig.4 Flow chart of reliability indexes assessment

表1 机组参数

Table 1 Parameter of generator

表2 常规机组替换情况

Table 2 Situation of conventional unit replacement

表3 新能源机组新增情况

Table 3 Increase of new energy units

表4 不同比例下新能源机组容量

Table 4 Capacity of new energy units in different proportions

图5 电力系统开机容量安排

Fig.5 Power system starting capacity arrangement

图6 场景1不同新能源渗透率各指标变化

Fig.6 Indexes changing under the different proportion of new energy in scenario 1

图7 场景2不同新能源渗透率各指标变化

Fig.7 Indexes changing under the different proportion of new energy in scenario 2

图8 不同风光容量比下指标变化

Fig.8 Indexes changing under the different proportions (wind: solar)

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