交直流混联系统暂态功角稳定评估及特征量可解释性分析

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2024.02.001

电力建设 ›› 2024, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (2): 1-9.doi: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2024.02.001

• 新型电力系统稳定分析与控制·栏目主持夏世威副教授、徐衍会教授、杨德友教授、刘铖副教授· • 上一篇下一篇

交直流混联系统暂态功角稳定评估及特征量可解释性分析

李雅晗¹(), 夏世威¹(), 马琳琳²(), 赵康³(), 李新²()

1.华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市 102206
2.国网山东省电力公司电力调度控制中心,济南市 250000
3.国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院,济南市 250000

收稿日期:2023-04-23 出版日期:2024-02-01 发布日期:2024-01-28
通讯作者: 夏世威(1984),男,博士,副教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为电力系统稳定分析与控制,E-mail:s.w.xia@ncepu.edu.cn。
作者简介:李雅晗(1999),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为电力系统暂态稳定评估,E-mail:13872585752@139.com;
马琳琳(1983),女,教授级高级工程师,主要研究方向为电力系统稳定分析与控制,E-mail:hosee@163.com;
赵康(1990),男,工程师,主要研究方向为电力系统运行与控制,E-mail:zhaokang1990@outlook.com;
李新(1981),女,高级工程师,主要研究方向为电力系统稳定分析与控制,E-mail:16922381@qq.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目“响应驱动的大电网稳定性智能增强分析与控制技术”(2021YFB2400800);国家重点研发计划项目“响应驱动的大电网稳定性智能增强分析与控制技术”(SGSDDKOOWJJS2200092)

Transient Power Angle Stability Evaluation and Interpretability Analysis of AC/DC Hybrid Power System

LI Yahan¹(), XIA Shiwei¹(), MA Linlin²(), ZHAO Kang³(), LI Xin²()

1. School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2. State Grid Shandong Dispatch and Control Center, Jinan 250000, China
3. State Grid Shandong Electric Power Research Institute, Jinan 250000, China

Received:2023-04-23 Published:2024-02-01 Online:2024-01-28
Supported by:
National Key Research and Development Program of China “Response-driven intelligent enhanced analysis and control for bulk power system stability”(2021YFB2400800);National Key Research and Development Program of China “Response-driven intelligent enhanced analysis and control for bulk power system stability”(SGSDDKOOWJJS2200092)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

相较传统电力系统,含新能源的交直流混联系统结构更加复杂,其稳定评估难度更大,且稳定影响因素的甄别和解释性较差。针对上述问题,首先选择新能源和直流特征量作为稳定评估模型的输入,并由sigmoid函数得到样本预测值与稳定结果之间的关系,提出一种基于极致梯度提升树(extreme gradient Boosting, XGBoost)的交直流混联系统暂态功角稳定评估方法;为进一步分析特征量对系统暂态功角稳定的影响,提出基于SHAP(Shapley additive explanations)的特征量可解释分析方法,从全局说明新能源和直流特征量的重要性,并从全部样本的角度反映各特征量值本身的大小与稳定结果的促进和抑制关系,再从局部得到特征量对单个样本稳定结果的影响;最后在某500 kV实际交直流混联系统上进行仿真验证,证实了该评估方法的准确率较高且SHAP能有效解释新能源和直流特征量对交直流混联系统暂态功角稳定的影响。

关键词: 交直流混联系统, 暂态功角稳定, 特征量, 可解释性

Abstract:

Compared with traditional power systems, the structure of an AC/DC hybrid system with new energy sources is more complex, its stability evaluation is more difficult, and the identification and interpretation of stability influencing factors are poor. Given the above problems, this study first selects new energy and DC features as the input of the stability evaluation model and obtains the relationship between the sample prediction value and the stability result using the sigmoid function. A transient power-angle stability evaluation method for an AC/DC hybrid system based on extreme gradient Boosting (XGBoost) was proposed. To further analyze the influence of features on the transient power angle stability of the system, an interpretable analysis method of features based on SHAP is proposed, which explains the importance of new energy and DC features from a global perspective, which reflects the relationship between the size of each feature itself and the promotion and inhibition of stability results from the perspective of all samples, and then obtains the influence of features on the stability results of a single sample from a local perspective. Finally, simulation verification was performed on a 500 kV actual AC/DC hybrid system, which proves that the accuracy of the evaluation method is high and that SHAP can effectively explain the influence of new energy and DC features on the transient power angle stability of the AC/DC hybrid system.

Key words: AC/DC hybrid system, transient power angle stability, features, interpretability

中图分类号:

TM73

李雅晗, 夏世威, 马琳琳, 赵康, 李新. 交直流混联系统暂态功角稳定评估及特征量可解释性分析[J]. 电力建设, 2024, 45(2): 1-9.

LI Yahan, XIA Shiwei, MA Linlin, ZHAO Kang, LI Xin. Transient Power Angle Stability Evaluation and Interpretability Analysis of AC/DC Hybrid Power System[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2024, 45(2): 1-9.

图/表 10

图1 特征量的可解释性示意

Fig.1 Interpretability of features

表1 暂态功角稳定评估的特征量

Table 1 Features of TASA

表2 暂态功角稳定混淆矩阵

Table 2 Confusion matrix of TASA

图2 暂态功角稳定评估流程

Fig.2 Flow chart of TASA

图3 算例拓扑

Fig.3 Example topology

表3 分类算法性能对比

Table 3 Performance comparison of classification method

图4 特征的重要性排序

Fig.4 Importance ranking of features

图5 特征量Shapley值

Fig.5 Shapley value of features

图6 单个稳定样本预测结果

Fig.6 Prediction result of single stable sample

图7 单个失稳样本预测结果

Fig.7 Prediction result of single unstable sample

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交直流混联系统暂态功角稳定评估及特征量可解释性分析

Transient Power Angle Stability Evaluation and Interpretability Analysis of AC/DC Hybrid Power System

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