农业综合能源系统多场景置信间隙决策低碳调度

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2024.05.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对现代农业园区风-光-垃圾-沼-储联合调度的碳排放问题,构建了基于多场景置信间隙决策理论的现代农业综合能源系统低碳调度优化模型。首先,使用改进的Shapley值法,对碳排放额度进行分摊,得到考虑风险因素的各主体阶梯碳交易价格模型。其次,在各主体阶梯碳交易价格模型基础上,考虑到源荷不确定性,基于多场景置信间隙决策理论构建了现代农业园区运行成本最小和二氧化碳排放量最低的多目标优化调度模型。最后,以我国东北地区某一农业园区数据为例,对所建模型进行验证。算例结果表明,改进的Shapley值使阶梯碳交易价格更贴合实际,同时,园区运行成本降低37.25%,碳排放量减少59.84%,最终实现了多能协调优化,提高了园区低碳环保性以及抵抗风险的能力。

关键词: 现代农业园区, 阶梯碳交易, 改进Shapley值, 多场景置信间隙决策, 风-光-垃圾-沼-储

Abstract:

A low-carbon dispatch optimization model of modern agricultural integrated energy systems based on the multi-scenario confidence gap decision theory is constructed to address the carbon emission problem of wind-solar-waste-biogas storage joint dispatch in modern agricultural parks. First, the improved Shapley value method is used to allocate carbon emission allowances, and a laddered carbon trading price model is obtained for each entity considering risk factors. Second, based on the laddered carbon trading price model of each entity and considering the uncertainty of the source load, a multi-objective optimal scheduling model with the lowest operating cost and carbon dioxide emissions of the modern agricultural park is constructed based on the multi-scenario confidence gap decision theory. Finally, the model is verified using data from an agricultural park in Northeast China. The results show that an improved Shapley value renders the laddered carbon trading price more realistic. Modern agricultural parks have experienced a 37.25% reduction in operating costs and a 59.84% reduction in carbon emissions. Furthermore, the park achieved multi-energy coordinated optimization. Consequently, the low-carbon environmental protection and risk resistance capabilities of modern agricultural parks have improved.

Key words: modern agricultural park, laddered carbon trading, improved Shapley value, multi-scenario confidence gap decision, wind-solar-waste-biogas-storage

中图分类号:

TM73

高建伟, 张艺, 高芳杰, 刘嘉燕. 农业综合能源系统多场景置信间隙决策低碳调度[J]. 电力建设, 2024, 45(5): 105-117.

GAO Jianwei, ZHANG Yi, GAO Fangjie, LIU Jiayan. Low-Carbon Scheduling for Multi-Scenario Confidence Gap Decision Making for Integrated Energy Systems in Agriculture[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2024, 45(5): 105-117.

图/表 16

图1 农业园区综合能源系统结构

Fig.1 Agricultural park comprehensive energy system structure

图2 效用函数

Fig.2 Utility function

图3 求解流程

Fig.3 Solution flow chart

图4 各主体负荷情况

Fig.4 Load situation of each main body

表1 各子联盟的碳排放量

Table 1 Carbon emission responsibility of each sub-alliance

图5 各主体的碳排放价格区间

Fig.5 Carbon emission price range of each entity

表2 不同场景运行结果

Table 2 Operation results in different scenarios

图6 各场景碳排放量对比

Fig.6 Comparison of carbon emissions under different scenarios

图7 各场景设备功率对比

Fig.7 Comparison of device power under different scenarios

图8 场景4电平衡曲线

Fig.8 Electrical balance cures of scenario 4

图9 场景4气平衡曲线

Fig.9 Gas balance curves of scenario 4

图10 场景4热平衡曲线

Fig.10 Heat balance curves of scenario 4

图11 场景4冷平衡曲线

Fig.11 Cold balance curves of scenario 4

图12 碳排放价格变化对碳排放量和总成本的影响

Fig.12 Influence of carbon price changes on carbon emissions and total costs

图13 不同目标显著性水平下帕累托前沿

Fig.13 Pareto frontiers at different significance levels

表3 不同显著性水平下的最佳折中解

Table 3 Optimal compromise solutions at different significance levels

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