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极端天气下配电网韧性评估及提升研究综述
Review of Evaluation and Improvement of Distribution Network Resilience Under Extreme Weather
台风、暴雨和地震等极端事件愈加频繁发生，严重停电事故暴露了配电网应对灾害能力的不足。为减少极端灾害造成的配电网故障问题，配电网韧性评估与提升研究具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。首先，简要介绍了韧性定义，将韧性与可靠性、安全性、鲁棒性进行归纳区分。然后，依据评估方法的不同侧重点对韧性指标进行分类，梳理了韧性评估指标体系。针对提高配电网韧性这一问题，基于极端天气量化分析和配电网故障建模，分别对配电网灾前、灾中、灾后三阶段韧性提升策略进行论述。最后，从故障表征、韧性评估及韧性提升3个方面出发，探讨了未来配电网韧性研究领域的关键问题和发展方向。
Extreme events such as typhoons， heavy rains， and earthquakes are occurring with increasing frequency， revealing the inadequacies of the distribution network to respond to disasters. To mitigate distribution network failures caused by extreme events， research on the assessment and enhancement of distribution network resilience is of significant theoretical and practical importance. This article begins by providing a concise definition of resilience and distinguishes it from related concepts such as reliability， security， and robustness. Subsequently， it classifies resilience indicators based on various assessment methodologies and organizes a resilience assessment index system. To address the challenge of enhancing distribution network resilience， this article discusses three-stage strategies for improvement before， during， and after a disaster， based on quantitative analyses of extreme weather and fault modeling of the distribution network. Finally， key issues and future development directions in the field of distribution network resilience research are explored， focusing on fault characterization， resilience assessment， and resilience enhancement.
极端天气 / 配电网韧性 / 故障建模 / 韧性指标 / 韧性提升
extreme weather / distribution network resilience / fault modeling / resilience indicators / resilience improvement
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With the frequent occurrence of extreme weather leading to natural disasters, it is difficult to use traditional reliability assessment methods for the comprehensive resilience assessment of distribution networks. This paper proposed a comprehensive resilience assessment method for distribution networks under high temperature weather. First, using the kernel ridge regression (KRR) method, a distribution network node load rate estimation method based on high-temperature weather segments was proposed. Secondly, in view of the impact of high temperature weather on the distribution network, a probability model of faults caused by changes in power flow caused by high temperature was established. At the same time, the impact of high temperature on the components of the distribution network was considered, and the fragility curve method was used to establish a fault model for distribution network components. And then proposed a comprehensive failure probability model of distribution network caused by high temperature weather. Thirdly, from the perspective of capturing the characteristics of the distribution network’s resilience function curve, a comprehensive evaluation index model AR for the distribution network was constructed,and Poisson distribution method to obtain distribution network resilience scenarios was used. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method and indicators was verified in a double-ring distribution network system example in a certain area in Beijing. The superiority of the comprehensive resilience assessment of the distribution network proposed in this paper was demonstrated through a comparative study with traditional resilience assessment indicators. |
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