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考虑源荷不确定性的园区综合能源系统鲁棒多阶段规划
Robust Multi-Stage Planning of Park-Level Integrated Energy System Considering Source-Load Uncertainties
【目的】针对园区综合能源系统(park-level integrated energy system, PIES)内光伏出力和电负荷需求的不确定性,以全生命周期现值总费用最低为目标函数,建立考虑源荷不确定性的园区综合能源系统鲁棒多阶段规划模型,其中考虑最优建设时序和阶梯碳交易以充分发挥园区用能的经济性与低碳性。【方法】首先,采用盒式不确定集对源荷不确定性进行建模,并引入不确定调节参数以降低PIES规划的保守性,从而得到一个两阶段鲁棒优化(two-stage robust optimization, TSRO)模型。在该TSRO模型的第二阶段决策变量中,同时包含离散变量与连续变量,无法直接利用拉格朗日对偶理论求解第二阶段问题,而需要在模型中再嵌套一层进行求解,因此文章采用了嵌套列和约束生成(nested column-and-constraint generation, NC&CG)算法来求解该模型。【结果】仿真结果表明,鲁棒规划模型通过在一定程度上牺牲系统的经济性和低碳性来提升系统的鲁棒性,并可以通过改变不确定性参数的取值来灵活调整PIES规划方案的鲁棒性。【结论】文章提出的多阶段规划方法可以从系统的长期建设角度考虑负荷增长性和源荷不确定性,提升规划方案的灵活性和适应性。
[Objective] A robust multi-stage planning model is established for a park-level integrated energy system (PIES) to minimize the total life-cycle present-value cost while considering source-load uncertainties, optimal construction sequencing, and tiered carbon trading to enhance economic efficiency and low-carbon benefits. [Methods] First, a box-type uncertainty set is used to model the source-load uncertainty and uncertainty adjustment parameters are introduced to reduce the conservatism of PIES planning and obtain a two-stage robust optimization (TSRO) model. Both discrete and continuous variables are included in the second-stage decision variables of the TSRO model, facilitating directly solving the second-stage problem using Lagrangian duality theory. Instead, an additional nested layer is required to solve the model. Therefore, this paper employs the nested column-and-constraint generation (NC&CG) algorithm to solve the model. [Results] Simulation results show that the robust programming model can improve the robustness of the system by sacrificing the economic and low-carbon benefits of the system to a certain extent and can flexibly adjust the robustness of the PIES planning scheme by changing the value of the uncertainty parameters. [Conclusions] The proposed multi-stage planning approach accounts for load growth and source-load uncertainties from a long-term system development perspective, thereby improving the flexibility and adaptability of the planning scheme.
园区综合能源系统 / 源荷不确定性 / 多阶段规划 / 嵌套列和约束生成算法
park-level integrated energy system / source-load uncertainties / multi-stage planning / nested column and constraint generation algorithm
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The energy structure of the integrated energy system is diverse, and the prices and performances of different models of the same equipment vary greatly. How to determine a reasonable energy structure, equipment model combination and installed capacity in the planning stage is the premise to achieve cost savings in the operation stage. This paper studies the optimization model of "energy structure-equipment model-installed capacity" planning considering carbon dioxide emissions. Firstly, a case-based reasoning technique based on K-nearest-neighbors (KNN) to obtain the energy structure suitable for the proposed park is constructed. Considering the carbon emission ladder cost, and taking the lowest total life cycle cost as the optimization objective, the combination of ant colony algorithm and genetic algorithm is used to solve the optimal equipment model combination and the optimal installed capacity. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed model in reducing costs is verified by example analysis. |
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Zero-carbon park is one of the key points in the practice of carbon neutralization and emission peak. However, in the context of the new power system, the electric energy supply of the park is characterized by the high integration of water, electricity, gas and heat, strong uncertainty of source-grid-load-storage, and complex and diverse primary and secondary topologies, which makes it difficult for the existing planning and design technologies to meet the application requirements. To this end, this paper discusses the current status, key technologies and future development trends of the optimal planning and design of zero-carbon parks. Firstly, the current status of research on zero-carbon parks and their planning and design technologies is explained from the perspective of energy interconnection. Secondly, the key technologies for optimal planning of zero-carbon parks, including energy-transportation system coupling, multi-energy complementarity, energy gradient utilization, demand response, and progressive planning, are summarized and explained. Finally, the future development trend of park planning is analyzed in terms of sharing concept, digital twin and cloud energy storage, and the technical challenges and research directions of park planning are indicated from the perspectives of concept application, disciplinary intersection, information integration and situational awareness, in order to provide stronger technical support for the development of zero-carbon parks for energy internet in China. |
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电-热耦合系统是综合能源系统的典型形式,对其进行合理规划是推动“双碳”目标下园区低碳转型的现实需求。结合碳交易及绿证交易机制,将园区参与碳排放权交易及绿色证书交易的成本引入优化目标,提出了计及分布式光伏接入的电-热耦合园区综合能源系统低碳规划模型。该模型综合考虑了电、热异质能流的耦合特性及分布式光伏、储能设备的运行特性。在P6H10系统上设立3个场景对所提模型进行仿真验证,结果表明在规划模型中考虑碳排放权交易机制和绿色证书交易机制可有效促进园区内分布式光伏和热电联产机组等低碳设备的规划,从而促进园区的低碳转型。在此基础上,对碳交易价格和绿证交易价格进行了灵敏度分析,表明制定合理的碳交易价格和绿证交易价格可有效降低园区总的成本。
As a typical form of integrated energy systems,electro-thermal coupling systems have to be comprehensively and rationally planned, in order to meet the low-carbon transformation demands under the "dual carbon" target. Thus, a low-carbon planning model of a park-level integrated electric and heating system (PIEHS) with photovoltaic system is formulated which takes the carbon emission trading and green certificate trading costs as the optimization objectives. The model comprehensively considers the coupling characteristics of electric and thermal heterogeneous energy flows and the operating characteristics of distributed photovoltaic and energy storage devices. A P6H10 system is utilized to simulate and verify the proposed model in 3 scenarios. The results demonstrate that the carbon trading and green certificate trading mechanisms can effectively promote the planning of low-carbon devices such as distributed photovoltaic, energy storage, and CHP units, which facilitates the low-carbon transformation of the PIEHS. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the carbon trading price and green certificate trading price, and the results show that the reasonable prices will reduce the total cost of the PIEHS. |
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园区综合能源系统(park integrated energy system,PIES)通过多能互补可显著提升其运行经济性,然而园区可控资源响应的不确定性会给日前调度策略的制定带来挑战,为此提出了一种考虑综合需求响应及其不确定性的园区综合能源系统日前经济优化调度策略。文章首先运用三角模糊数描述光伏、负荷预测功率以及柔性负荷响应量的不确定性,建立计及不确定性的日前调度模型;然后以系统总运行成本最小为目标,对系统供需两侧可控资源进行协同优化,并根据模糊规划理论,将模糊期望约束和模糊机会约束等效转换为确定性约束形式便于求解;最后通过算例验证了所提策略通过综合需求响应可有效降低系统运行成本,并分析了模糊机会约束置信水平对系统运行成本的影响。
The park integrated energy system can significantly improve its operation economy through multi-energy complementary. However, the uncertainty of the controllable resource response will bring challenges to the formulation of the day-ahead dispatching strategy. Thus, a day-ahead optimal economic dispatching strategy considering the integrated demand response and its uncertainty is proposed for the park integrated energy system. Firstly, the uncertainty of photovoltaic and load forecast power and the uncertainty of flexible load response are described by triangular fuzzy number, and a day-ahead dispatching model considering uncertainty is established. Then, in order to minimize the total operation cost of the system, the controllable resources of the supply and demand sides of the system are optimized. According to the fuzzy scheduling theory, fuzzy expectation constraints and fuzzy chance constraints are equivalently converted into their certainty forms for easy solution. Finally, the case analysis shows that the proposed strategy can further reduce the operating cost through integrated demand response; and the impact of fuzzy chance constraint confidence level on the system operating cost is analyzed. |
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