【目的】高比例新能源并网带来的强随机性以及极端事件频发，使得采用确定性方式构建电力电量平衡分析表的模式越来越不适用。【方法】在保留多年实践广受认可的平衡表格形式基础上，构建概率性场景，设计了电力电量平衡概率性分析实用方法。具体包括：建立了概率性电力电量平衡分析框架，提出了典型场景、边缘场景和极端场景的构建方法；设计了概率性电力电量平衡表整体架构，并根据平衡裕度和新能源消纳指数指标进行平衡风险判断；针对平衡风险严重的重点时段，进一步设计了电力电量平衡分析指标体系，并采用时序生产模拟进行精细化的平衡状态评估。【结果】改进ROTS测试系统概率性电力电量平衡表结果显示全年处于紧平衡状态；在11月91.36%概率的典型场景，可以保持电力电量平衡；在11月供应最紧张场景，电量平衡裕度为97%，最大电力不足为2.66 GW，与时序生产模拟的结果接近。【结论】测试系统算例验证了所提方法既能较好适应高比例新能源并网场景，也能根据平衡风险采用不同维度分析，能很好满足工程应用需要。

[Objective] The use of deterministic methods to construct power and energy balance tables is unsuitable because of the strong randomness and frequent occurrence of extreme events caused by a high proportion of new energy grid connections. [Methods] Based on a widely recognized balance table form， this study constructed probabilistic scenarios and designed a practical method for the probabilistic analysis of power and energy balance. Specifically， a probabilistic analysis framework for power and energy balance was established， and methods for constructing typical， edge， and extreme scenarios were proposed. The overall framework of the probabilistic power and energy balance table was designed， and a balancing risk assessment based on indicators of the balance margin and a new energy consumption index was conducted. For key periods with severe balance risks， an index system for power and energy balance analysis was designed， and a refined balance state evaluation was performed using a time-series production simulation. [Results] The results of the probabilistic power and energy balance table of the improved ROTS test system showed that it is in a tight balance state throughout the year. In a typical scenario with a probability of 91.36% in November， the power and energy balance could be maintained. In the tightest supply scenario in November， the energy balance margin was 97%， and the maximum power shortage was 2.66 GW， which are close to the results of the time-series production simulation. [Conclusions] The test system examples suggest that the proposed method can adapt well to a high proportion of new energy grid-connected scenarios and adopt different dimensions of analysis based on balancing risks， which can satisfy the requirements of engineering applications.