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冰灾天气下电网“源-网-荷”耦合特性与薄弱性分析
Analysis for Coupling Characteristic and Weakness of “Source-Network-Load” Under Ice Storms
【目的】在冰灾极端气候下，风光发电能力会急剧下降，同时电力设备故障概率显著提升，导致电力供应在持续数天的时间内出现严重失衡。为分析冰灾天气下高比例风光能源电力系统源网荷各侧之间复杂的相互耦合关系，并识别易发生故障外扩的薄弱节点，研究了冰灾气候条件下高比例风光能源电力系统“源-网-荷”时空分布的规律性、相关性、随机性，揭示电力供需双侧的概率化特征，构建了计及冰灾气候关键影响因素的电力系统“源-网-荷”概率模型。【方法】基于非线性动态系统理论，提出了电网节点电压被动/主动波动指标、网络整体波动指标以及节点电压越限指标，基于动态阻抗矩阵和源-荷频率耦合度提出了一种研究冰灾天气影响下电力系统源侧、网侧、荷侧各部分之间耦合关系的“源-网-荷”耦合特性与薄弱性分析方法，进而分析冰灾天气下“源-网-荷”协同变化的主要影响机理及其变化规律。【结果】改进IEEE 39节点系统和某地实际电网算例分析结果表明，系统整体的节点被动/主动波动指标逐渐增大，节点间相互影响增强，风光能源的波动性在冰灾场景下会放大耦合效应，降低电网抗冰灾能力。【结论】所提方法可揭示冰灾场景下“源-网-荷”耦合特性的动态演化规律，并辨识电网关键薄弱节点，为深入研究冰灾天气下的电力系统运行特性和优化调度提供了有效工具。
[Objective] Under extreme ice-disaster conditions， the power-generation capacity of wind and solar energy declines significant while the probability of power-equipment failure increases significantly， thus resulting in severe supply-demand imbalances that persist for many days. To analyze the complex interdependent relationships among source grid-load components in high-penetration renewable-energy systems during ice storms and identify vulnerable nodes susceptible to failure propagation， this study investigates the temporal-spatial distribution patterns， correlations， and stochastic characteristics of source grid-load systems under ice-disaster conditions. This study reveals the probabilistic features of both the power supply and demand sides， based on which a probabilistic model for source grid-load systems that incorporates key ice-disaster impact factors is established. [Methods] Based on nonlinear dynamic system theory， we propose three novel indicators， i.e.， passive/active voltage-fluctuation indices for grid nodes， a composite-network fluctuation index， and a node-voltage violation index. A dynamic impedance matrix and source-load frequency coupling coefficient are introduced to develop an analytical framework for assessing the source grid-load coupling characteristics and vulnerability under ice-disaster scenarios. This methodology enables a systematic investigation of the synergistic evolution mechanisms and variation patterns within source grid-load systems during ice events. [Results] Case studies using a modified IEEE 39-node system and a regional grid show that system-wide passive/active fluctuation indices increase progressively as nodal interdependencies improve. The amplified coupling effects from renewable-energy fluctuations during ice storms substantially degrade grid resilience. [Conclusions] The proposed approach effectively reveals the dynamic evolution patterns of source grid-load coupling characteristics and identifies critical vulnerable nodes， thus providing an effective tool for comprehensively investigating the operational characteristics and optimal dispatch strategies for power systems under ice-disaster conditions.
power system / ice disaster / dynamic impedance / electrical coupling
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