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自愿减排市场下发电主体交易策略
Trading Strategies of Power Generation Entities in the Voluntary Emission Reduction Market
【目的】 在自愿减排市场重启背景下,为促进电-碳-证市场协同建设,有效解决当前各发电主体面临的决策问题,提出了电-碳-证市场耦合机制,构建了多市场耦合下的发电主体交易决策模型,针对关键参数开展了敏感性分析。 【方法】 所提模型基于电-碳-证市场耦合机制及各市场出清机理构建,考虑自愿减排市场重启影响设置约束条件,应用多目标粒子群优化算法求解,同时采用Morris筛选法和Sobol法围绕可再生能源消纳责任权重、基准线碳排放因子及核准自愿减排抵消比例开展敏感性分析。 【结果】 Matlab模拟仿真结果表明,所提模型输出多市场耦合下的交易收益较考虑单一市场的交易收益提高了44.55%,敏感性分析结果表明可再生能源消纳责任权重这一参数的总效应指数最高为0.79,且该参数在[23%,26%]区间内扰动时发电主体交易成本变化率明显提高,设置为24.5%时变化率达到峰值,为5.44%。 【结论】所提模型能够有效解决现阶段各发电主体面临的决策问题,为各发电主体提供科学合理的交易决策依据,同时敏感性分析结果可为多市场交易机制的优化及可再生能源消纳责任权重等考核指标的调整提供科学参考。
[Objective] In the context of the restart of the voluntary emission reduction market,in order to promote the coordinated construction of the electricity carbon certification market and effectively solve the decision-making problems faced by various power generation entities,a coupling mechanism of the electricity carbon certification market was proposed,and a trading decision model for power generation entities under multi market coupling was constructed. Sensitivity analysis was conducted on key parameters. [Methods] The proposed model is based on the coupling mechanism of the electricity carbon certification market and the clearing mechanism of each market. It considers the impact of the restart of the voluntary emission reduction market and sets constraints. The multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is applied to solve the problem. At the same time,Morris screening and Sobol method are used to conduct sensitivity analysis around renewable energy consumption responsibility weights,baseline carbon emission factors,and certified emission reduction offset ratios. [Results] The Matlab simulation results show that the proposed model outputs a 44.55% increase in trading returns under multi market coupling compared to considering a single market. Sensitivity analysis results indicate that the total effect index of the parameter of renewable energy consumption responsibility weight is the highest at 0.79,and the rate of change in transaction costs of power generation entities significantly increases when this parameter is disturbed within the range of [23%,26%]. When set to 24.5%,the rate of change reaches its peak at 5.44%. [Conclusions] The proposed model can effectively solve the decision-making problems faced by various power generation entities at the current stage,providing scientific and reasonable trading decision-making basis for each power generation entity. At the same time,the results of sensitivity analysis can provide scientific reference for optimizing multi market trading mechanisms and adjusting assessment indicators such as renewable energy consumption responsibility weights.
电-碳-证耦合 / 交易决策 / 敏感性分析 / 核证自愿减排抵消比例 / 可再生能源消纳责任权重
electricity carbon certification coupling / transaction decision / sensitivity analysis / verify the voluntary emission reduction offset ratio / renewable energy consumption responsibility weights
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Recently, in the face of global climate problems and challenges posed by the scarcity of conventional fossil energy sources, governments have successively proposed strategic goals for energy conservation, emission reduction, and support for renewable energy development. The carbon emissions market and renewable portfolio standards are important market tools for reducing carbon emissions and promoting renewable energy consumption. As the main responsible body of CO2 emission, the low-carbon green transformation of power system is the key link to help the “carbon peak, carbon neutral” target, and the coupling of electricity-carbon-renewable portfolio standard will help to promote CO2 emission reduction and renewable energy consumption to a greater extent. First, it analyzes the interaction mechanism between the electricity and carbon markets and the electricity and renewable portfolio standards. Second, it summarizes the current research status of coupled electricity-carbon-renewable portfolio trading from the perspectives of trading mechanism design, trading optimization, and market trading technology. Furthermore, this study describes the current status and mechanisms of the domestic and international implementation of carbon markets and renewable portfolio standards to reflect the policy environment for emissions reduction in different countries. Finally, the challenges and limitations faced by the construction of Chinas electricity-carbon-renewable portfolio-coupling mechanism are sorted out. In addition, the prospect of the synergistic development of the electricity market, carbon market, and renewable portfolio standards is proposed to provide a reference for constructing Chinas coupling trading mechanism and help achieve the goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality.”
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In view of the low degree of participation in electricity market transactions of concentrating solar power (CSP) in China, market-related operation research is still blank. This paper considers CSP as the main body of the market and is aimed at the electricity spot market transaction. According to the analysis of its internal“light, heat, and electricity”energy flow characteristics, an operation model of a CSP station with thermal energy as the energy center is constructed. Then, with the goal of maximizing the electricity sales revenue of CSP, a market transaction decision model based on the multi-oligarch Cournot model is constructed, and the solution process of its nonlinear complementary method is given. Finally, taking an actual CSP station as a reference, in three typical daily scenarios, an example simulation of CSP participating in electricity market transactions is carried out. The results show that: due to its excellent stable output, compared with traditional PV, CSP has a significant improvement in market competitiveness, which can largely make up for its lack of capacity cost. The surplus heat of CSP can better satisfy the demand for electro-thermal coupling system, replace cogeneration links, reduce operating costs, and meet the development needs of the integrated energy system in the future. |
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