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极端天气下含灵活资源的新型电力系统韧性研究综述
Review on the Resilience of New Power Systems with Flexible Resources under Extreme Weather Conditions
【目的】“双碳”目标下，随着能源低碳化进程和新能源发展步入快车道，低概率、高风险的极端天气给高新能源占比的新型电力系统安全可靠运行带来突出挑战。电力灵活资源如电动汽车、分布式发电等能够为极端天气下的系统韧性提升提供解决方案。【方法】文章首先阐述了电力系统韧性概念特征，揭示了极端天气对新型电力系统的影响；其次，从极端天气下的系统元件建模、系统韧性分析方法、韧性指标体系等三个方面阐述了极端天气下的新型电力系统韧性研究；然后，通过分析极端天气下的电力灵活资源可调能力，从源、网、荷、储四个方面，面向极端天气下的预防、紧急调控与供电快速恢复三个阶段，分析极端天气下考虑灵活资源的新型电力系统韧性提升策略。【结果】最后，针对极端天气下含灵活资源的新型电力系统韧性研究发展方向进行展望，旨在形成极端天气下新型电力系统风险控制及韧性提升的闭环管理，为极端天气下的电力保供提供理论依据。
[Objective] Under China’s “dual carbon” goals，as energy decarbonization accelerates and renewable energy deployment enters a fast-growth phase，low-probability but high-risk extreme weather poses significant challenges to the safe and reliable operation of new power systems with high renewable energy penetration. Flexible power resources—such as electric vehicles and distributed generation—offer solutions to enhance system resilience during extreme weather. [Methods] This paper outlines the conceptual characteristics of power system resilience and examines the impact of extreme weather on new power systems. It reviews the resilience research of new power systems under extreme weather from three aspects：system component modeling under extreme weather，system resilience analysis methods，and resilience indicator frameworks. Furthermore，by analyzing the adjustable capacity of flexible power resources during extreme weather，the paper proposes strategies for enhancing the resilience of new power systems considering flexibility and extreme weather from four perspectives（generation，grid，load，and storage），and across three stages（prevention，emergency control，and rapid power restoration）. [Conclusions] Finally，the paper identifies research directions on the resilience of new power systems with flexible resources under extreme weather，aiming to establish a closed-loop risk management and resilience enhancement framework，and provide a theoretical basis for ensuring power supply during extreme weather.
extreme weather / flexible resources / system resilience / new power system
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The impact of climate change on human society has attracted more and more attention, and the risk of power outage caused by a series of extreme weather is becoming more and more significant. In order to deal with climate change, especially extreme weather, human society needs to adopt two coping strategies of mitigation and adaptation. For the developing countries and small island countries, since climate change has already taken place, the climate problem will first be adaptation. In order to solve the problem of how the power system can fully adapt to climate change from all aspects, a power system development system adapted to climate change was established, and a construction method of power system development path covering extreme meteorological factors was proposed. On the basis of summarizing the impacts of various extreme weather on the power system, the vulnerability of power grid was evaluated. The overall strategy of adapting to extreme weather was studied, and the scheme of power system adapting to extreme weather events was proposed, namely planning-construction-emergency management-assessment (PCEA) disaster resistance system. In the planning stage, the study focused on the minimum power grid planning and built the minimum power grid backbone network without power outage. Based on the application examples in different stages of the scheme, it was verified that the PCEA system can make the power system better adapt to the extreme weather. |
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Objectives To address the impact of extreme high-temperature weather on the supply and demand balance of power systems, a medium- to long-term method for enhancing power system resilience is proposed. Methods First, the coupled “source-load” output characteristics under sustained extreme high-temperature scenarios are simulated, and an initial evaluation of system resilience is performed using a chronological operation simulation model. Second, based on the operation simulation results, a resilience enhancement-oriented power resource planning model is established, with the objective of minimizing the combined cost of power supply and load shedding under the constraint of supply and demand balance, thereby deriving combined measures for resilience enhancement. Finally, operation simulations of the resilience enhancement strategy scenarios are conducted to verify their effectiveness. Results Taking Guangdong Province in 2025 as a case study, compared with the scenario without the implementation of the resilience enhancement strategies for power systems, the application of such strategies under extreme high-temperature weather decreases the cumulative power shortage, maximum lost load scale, and economic losses caused by power shortage by 86.71%, 60.72%, and 91.55%, respectively. The system’s minimum power supply level increases by 11.07%. Conclusions By coordinating the expansion of power supply resources and deployment of load resources, the resilience enhancement strategies effectively improve the power system’s supply capacity under extreme high-temperature weather, while reducing the economic loss and social cost caused by power shortages. |
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洪涝灾害频发会导致配电网发生大规模停电事故，而评估配电网韧性有助于电力系统运维人员精准预测、应对洪涝灾害造成的配电网故障，降低经济损失。本文首先提出了三维韧性评估指标体系，体系包含状态、架构、时间维度的12个单项指标，可反映出暴雨量、分布式电源配置、重构开关操作次数等因素对配电网韧性评估的影响。采用模糊层次分析法和模糊隶属度函数对配电网韧性进行综合评估，辨识配电网规划、运行、调度薄弱环节。最后针对重庆市渝北某农区配电网进行算例分析，验证本文所述韧性评估体系的有效性和合理性。
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随着极端天气导致的自然灾害频发,针对配电网的综合韧性评估难以采用传统可靠性评估方法,提出一种高温天气下配电网综合韧性评估方法。首先,利用核岭回归(kernel ridge regression, KRR)方法,提出基于高温天气片段的配电网节点负荷率估计方法。其次,针对高温天气对配电网产生的影响,建立了高温引起潮流变化导致配电网故障的概率模型,同时考虑了高温对配电网元件的影响,利用脆弱性曲线方法建立了配电网高温天气下元件故障概率模型,进而提出高温天气导致的配电网综合故障概率模型。再次,从捕捉配电网韧性功能曲线特征角度出发,提出配电网综合评估指标模型,并利用泊松分布方法获取配电网韧性场景。最后,在北京某地区双环网配电网系统算例中验证了所提方法和指标的有效性,通过与传统韧性评估指标对比表明了所提配电网综合韧性评估的优越性。
With the frequent occurrence of extreme weather leading to natural disasters, it is difficult to use traditional reliability assessment methods for the comprehensive resilience assessment of distribution networks. This paper proposed a comprehensive resilience assessment method for distribution networks under high temperature weather. First, using the kernel ridge regression (KRR) method, a distribution network node load rate estimation method based on high-temperature weather segments was proposed. Secondly, in view of the impact of high temperature weather on the distribution network, a probability model of faults caused by changes in power flow caused by high temperature was established. At the same time, the impact of high temperature on the components of the distribution network was considered, and the fragility curve method was used to establish a fault model for distribution network components. And then proposed a comprehensive failure probability model of distribution network caused by high temperature weather. Thirdly, from the perspective of capturing the characteristics of the distribution network’s resilience function curve, a comprehensive evaluation index model AR for the distribution network was constructed,and Poisson distribution method to obtain distribution network resilience scenarios was used. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method and indicators was verified in a double-ring distribution network system example in a certain area in Beijing. The superiority of the comprehensive resilience assessment of the distribution network proposed in this paper was demonstrated through a comparative study with traditional resilience assessment indicators. |
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