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考虑多样化异步行为周期的发电商电-碳-燃料市场协同决策优化
李莹秋, 史守圆, 吴毓峰, 余涛, 王梓耀, 郑焕新
电力建设 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5) : 1-17.
PDF(3653 KB)
PDF(3653 KB)
考虑多样化异步行为周期的发电商电-碳-燃料市场协同决策优化
Optimization of Collaborative Decision Making in the Electricity-Carbon-Fuel Markets for Power Generation Companies Considering Diversified Asynchronous Behavioral Cycles
【目的】 随着电力市场化改革深入推进,传统火电发电商面临电力、碳排放及燃料市场的价格波动与多市场协同决策难题。为此,考虑电-碳-燃料市场的价格随机性与交易结算机制,构建了多样化异步行为周期下的燃煤发电商跨市场决策模型。【方法】 模型考虑了市场交易决策周期多样性、燃料供应周期多样性和资金结算周期多样性,描述煤炭库存与资金流动态平衡过程,重点关注周期多样性导致发电商决策流、物资流、资金流之间的异步转化。构建多时间尺度分层递进的决策求解框架,采用随机规划方法考虑多种随机因素和风险度量,实现了多市场环境下发电商各类资源的动态协同。【结果】 算例结果表明,所提方法在经济性方面相比传统决策的收益提升了5.10%,在安全性方面能有效规避运营风险,避免了忽略燃料供应和结算周期异步性可能导致的库存断供问题和资金链断裂风险。【结论】 所提方法通过系统性建模发电商异步行为周期,能够有效提升其经济效益,增强了多市场参与灵活性和风险防控能力,可为发电企业在复杂市场环境下的安全经济运营提供科学参考。
[Objective] As electricity market reforms deepen, traditional thermal power generators face challenges regarding price volatility and the need for coordinated decision making across electricity, carbon emission, and fuel markets. To address these issues, this paper accounts for the price stochasticity and the transaction settlement mechanisms of electricity-carbon-fuel markets to construct a cross-market decision-making model for coal-fired power generators operating under diversified asynchronous behavioral cycles. [Methods] The model incorporates the diversity of market trading decision-making cycles, fuel supply cycles, and fund settlement cycles, and characterizes the dynamic balancing processes of coal inventory and cash flow, focusing on the asynchronous transformation among decision flow, material flow, and cash flow resulting from cycle diversity. A multi-time-scale hierarchical progressive decision-solving framework was developed, employing stochastic programming methods to integrate various random factors and risk measures, thereby facilitating the dynamic coordination of diverse resources for power generators in multi-market environments. [Results] Case study results show that the proposed method improves economic benefits by 5.10% compared to traditional decision-making methods, and effectively mitigates operational risks by preventing inventory shortages and capital chain disruptions that may arise when the asynchronous nature of fuel supply and settlement cycles is overlooked. [Conclusions] The proposed method effectively improves economic benefits and enhances multi-market participation flexibility and risk management capability through the systematic modeling of power generators’ asynchronous behavioral cycles. This research provides a scientific reference for power enterprises’ safe and economic operation in complex market environments.
电-碳-燃料市场 / 市场异步周期 / 燃料采购 / 电煤库存管理 / 资金流 / 随机规划
electricity-carbon-fuel market / asynchronous market cycle / fuel procurement / inventory management of electric coal / capital flow / stochastic programming
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利益冲突声明(Conflict of Interests): 所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。
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