融合自适应高精度负荷预测的微电网动态能量管理策略

龚钢军, 申明玉, 张兵, 于骜, 陈磊, 刘九良

电力建设 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5) : 80-92.

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电力建设 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5) : 80-92. DOI: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.05.007
规划建设

融合自适应高精度负荷预测的微电网动态能量管理策略

作者信息 +

Dynamic Energy Management Strategy for Microgrids Integrating Adaptive High-Accuracy Load Forecasting

Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

【目的】 针对“双碳”目标下微电网作为提升能源利用效率与促进可再生能源消纳的关键载体,系统稳定与经济运行面临负荷波动大和多主体协同难的挑战,提出一种融合参数自适应长短期记忆网络的负荷预测方法,以及基于鲸鱼优化算法的微电网动态能量管理方法。【方法】 首先,通过量子粒子群算法对长短期记忆网络关键超参数进行全局寻优,有效提升短期负荷预测精度和有效捕捉峰谷时段负荷突变特征;其次,基于长短期记忆网络下的负荷预测结果建立含多种分布式电源与储能装置的微电网经济调度模型,以单日内运行成本最小化为目标,结合功率平衡和设备出力的约束关系,利用鲸鱼优化算法实现全局优化调度。【结果】 所提负荷预测方法在短期预测中具有较高精度,并能有效识别负荷峰谷波动特征;基于该预测结果,鲸鱼优化算法在经济调度模型中实现了更低的运行成本,同时在提升本地分布式电源利用率与维持成本稳定性方面,表现优于传统优化算法。【结论】 所建立的高精度预测模型与鲸鱼全局优化算法的协同策略可为源-荷不确定性下的微电网经济运行提供参考。

Abstract

[Objective] Under the “Dual Carbon”goals, microgrids serve as key carriers for improving energy efficiency and promoting renewable energy consumption. However, they face challenges regarding system stability and economic operation due to significant load fluctuations and difficulties in multi-agent coordination. To address these issues, this paper proposes a load forecasting method integrating a parameter-adaptive long short-term memory (LSTM) network, along with a dynamic energy management method for microgrids based on the whale optimization algorithm (WOA). [Methods] First, the quantum particle swarm pptimization (QPSO) algorithm is employed to globally optimize the key hyperparameters of the LSTM network. This significantly improves the accuracy of short-term load forecasting and effectively captures the characteristics of load mutations during peak and valley periods. Second, based on the load forecasting results, an economic dispatch model for microgrids containing various distributed generators and energy storage devices is established. With the objective of minimizing daily operating costs and subject to constraints on power balance and equipment output, the WOA is utilized to achieve global optimal dispatch. [Results] The proposed load forecasting method demonstrates high accuracy in short-term predictions and effectively identifies load peak-valley fluctuation characteristics. Based on these forecasting results, the WOA achieves lower operating costs in the economic dispatch model. Furthermore, it outperforms traditional optimization algorithms in improving the utilization rate of local distributed generators and maintaining cost stability. [Conclusions] The synergistic strategy established in this study, combining a high-precision prediction model with a whale global optimization algorithm, provides a reference for the economic operation of microgrids under source-load uncertainty.

关键词

微电网 / 量子粒子群算法 / 长短期记忆网络 / 鲸鱼优化算法 / 动态能量管理

Key words

microgrid / quantum particle swarm optimization(QPSO) / long short-term memory(LSTM) / whale optimization algorithm(WOA) / dynamic energy management

引用本文

导出引用
龚钢军, 申明玉, 张兵, . 融合自适应高精度负荷预测的微电网动态能量管理策略[J]. 电力建设. 2026, 47(5): 80-92 https://doi.org/10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.05.007
GONG Gangjun, SHEN Mingyu, ZHANG Bing, et al. Dynamic Energy Management Strategy for Microgrids Integrating Adaptive High-Accuracy Load Forecasting[J]. Electric Power Construction. 2026, 47(5): 80-92 https://doi.org/10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.05.007
中图分类号: TM715   

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摘要
针对新能源发电接入以及考虑需求响应背景下的微电网优化调度问题,建立微电网模型;以考虑需求响应带来的用户用电不舒适度和系统的运行成本构建目标函数,调整用户可转移负荷。根据风光出力具有的随机性、波动性等特点,采用模糊K-means算法对风光出力数据进行聚类,得到典型的风光出力曲线。对哈里斯鹰优化(Harris hawks optimization, HHO)算法种群分布不均以及易陷入局部最优的问题进行改进:首先,在初始化种群阶段引入Tent映射,使得初始种群覆盖更全面,避免在早期陷入局部最优解;然后,在搜索阶段引入Levy飞行函数,增强算法的全局搜索能力,再将改进哈里斯鹰优化(improved HHO, IHHO)算法应用于寻优,并将其与经典算法进行对比。最终结果验证了所提策略的有效性以及IHHO算法的优越性。
WANG Xin, LI Sheng. Multi-objective optimal scheduling of microgrid based on improved Harris Hawks optimization algorithm[J]. Distributed Energy, 2025, 10(1): 91-100.

A microgrid model is established to address the optimization and scheduling of microgrid in the context of new energy generation access and demand response. The objective function is constructed to consider the user's electricity discomfort caused by demand response and the operating cost of the system, and the user's transferable load is adjusted. Based on the randomness and volatility of wind and solar power output, the fuzzy K-means algorithm is used to cluster the wind and solar power output data and obtain typical wind and solar power output curves. Next, this paper improves the Harris hawks optimization (HHO) algorithm to address the issues of uneven population distribution and susceptibility to local optima. Firstly, Tent mapping is introduced in the initialization stage of the population to make the initial population coverage more comprehensive and avoid falling into local optima in the early stage. Then, Levy flight function is introduced in the search stage to enhance the global search ability of the algorithm. Finally, improved HHO (IHHO) algorithm is applied to optimization and compared with classical algorithms. The final results validate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy and the superiority of the IHHO algorithm.

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ZHANG M H, FANG X. Bald eagle search algorithm based optimal reconfiguration of centralized thermoelectric generation system under non-uniform temperature distribution condition[J]. Frontiers in Energy Research, 2022, 10: 1016536.
Fossil energy is becoming increasingly scarce, and technological innovation to promote clean energy consumption and achieve the “dual carbon” goal has increasingly become the focus of discussion. Compared with the full coverage thermoelectric module design scheme, the optimized layout scheme uses fewer thermoelectric generation (TEG) modules, thus confirming that the more TEG modules that are not arranged, the better. This research provides a possible way to improve the output power of TEG system. This paper proposed a bald eagle search algorithm (BES) scheme to optimize centralized TEG array reconfigures, which has not been previously employed to achieve a fast and effective tracking of the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) under non-uniform temperature difference (NTD) condition. In order to efficiently seek the global MPP (GMPP) under NTD condition, a BES algorithm is adopted to TEG reconfigures arrays to evidently improve the global searching ability of BES algorithm through the previous searching results. Furthermore, the main method in this paper is preliminarily verified on MATLAB. Both simulation and experimental results show that BES algorithm can significantly improve the convergence accuracy and output power.

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利益冲突声明(Conflict of Interests): 所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。

基金

国家自然科学基金项目(52477095)

编辑: 孙静琳
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