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湿热型热浪下考虑生产特性的耦合工业集群用电管控方法
Power Consumption Management Method for Coupled Industrial Clusters Considering Production Characteristics Under Humid Heatwaves
【目的】热浪影响范围广、强度大,是对我国电力系统影响最大的气象灾害事件之一。工业用户用电体量大,且具备一定调节潜力,是参与电力保供的优质资源。现有研究未充分考虑湿热型热浪下温湿度耦合对温感负荷的影响,难以精准预测负荷缺口;传统用电管控未重视工业集群的产业链耦合特性,工程实践中常按统一比例切除负荷,易导致上下游企业被动停产、连锁断供,造成巨额经济损失。为此,提出一种湿热型热浪下考虑产业链耦合的工业集群用电管控方法。【方法】首先,结合温湿度等多种气象因素,生成高温场景下电力系统源荷序列,提升负荷缺口预测精度;其次,立足工业集群产业链耦合特性,建立考虑工业用户生产特性的内部负荷调控能力评估模型,并构建以最小化工业负荷计划调控损失及产业链耦合关联损失为目标的高工业负荷占比区域电网运行方式优化模型。最后,以我国东部某高工业负荷占比区域为实例开展仿真验证。【结果】与传统管控方法相比,所提方法可显著降低负荷调控损失及产业链连锁断供损失。【结论】所提方法能够有效应对湿热型热浪下工业集群用电管控的特殊挑战,弥补传统方法未考虑产业链耦合的缺陷,减少供需失衡下的综合损失,为电力系统迎峰度夏提供科学、可行的技术支撑。
[Objective] Heatwaves, featured by extensive influence and high intensity, are among the meteorological disaster events that exert the most significant impacts on China’s power system. Industrial consumers, possessing substantial power demand and considerable regulation potential, represent high-quality resources for ensuring a guaranteed power supply. However, existing studies have not fully accounted for the coupled effect of temperature and humidity on temperature-sensitive loads under humid heatwaves, which hinders the accurate prediction of load gaps. Furthermore, traditional power consumption control overlooks the industrial chain coupling characteristics inherent in industrial clusters. In engineering practice, loads are usually curtailed at a uniform proportion, which tends to trigger passive shutdowns of upstream and downstream enterprises and cascading supply disruptions, resulting in massive economic losses. To address these issues, this paper proposes a power consumption control method for industrial clusters considering industrial chain coupling under humid heatwaves.[Methods] First, by integrating multiple meteorological factors including temperature and humidity, the source-load sequence of the power system under high-temperature scenarios is generated to improve the accuracy of load gap forecasting. Second, based on the industrial chain coupling characteristics of industrial clusters, an evaluation model of internal load regulation capability is established, taking into account the production features of industrial consumers. Furthermore, an optimal operation model for regional power grids with a high proportion of industrial loads is constructed, with the objective of minimizing both the planned regulation loss of industrial loads and the coupled loss of the industrial chain.[Results] Simulation verification was conducted on a regional power grid with a high proportion of industrial loads in eastern China. The results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly reduces load regulation losses and cascading supply disruption losses within the industrial chain compared with traditional control methods.[Conclusions] The proposed method can effectively address the unique challenges of power consumption control for industrial clusters under humid heatwaves, remedy the deficiencies of traditional methods that ignore industrial chain coupling, and mitigate the comprehensive loss under supply-demand imbalance. This approach provides scientifically sound and feasible technical support for power systems managing peak summer loads.
湿热型热浪 / 工业集群 / 产业链耦合 / 供需平衡 / 有序用电
humid heatwave / industrial clusters / industrial chain coupling / supply-demand balance / orderly power consumption
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利益冲突声明(Conflict of Interests): 所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。
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