考虑极端气象负荷场景生成的配电网韧性提升风险规避鲁棒策略

姚海佳, 林济铿, 罗萍萍, 毛夏平

电力建设 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (6) : 57-67.

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电力建设 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (6) : 57-67. DOI: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.06.005
气象敏感型电力系统高精度预测、风险评估与运行关键技术·栏目主持 余光正、杨茂、李更丰、李然、李远征、万灿·

考虑极端气象负荷场景生成的配电网韧性提升风险规避鲁棒策略

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Risk Aversion Robust Strategies for Enhancing the Resilience of Distribution Networks Generated by Extreme Meteorological Load Scenarios

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摘要

【目的】针对极端气象事件频发对配电网安全稳定运行构成严峻挑战的问题,提出了一种考虑极端气象负荷场景生成的配电网韧性提升鲁棒策略。【方法】首先,针对极端气象历史样本稀少问题,提出一种基于相关性样本扩充策略的条件去噪扩散概率模型,结合气象条件与双重迁移学习,生成极端气象负荷场景。其次,基于生成场景建立了故障前两阶段鲁棒优化模型:第一阶段决策材料中转仓库选址及材料预分配方案;第二阶段在考虑故障场景分布模糊集与决策者风险偏好最坏的情况下,将因材料短缺导致的负荷损失成本最小化。最后,在故障后阶段,建立了考虑维修队伍与移动电源协同调度的时空优化模型,以最小化停电损失为目标,实现故障修复与负荷恢复的高效协同。【结果】仿真结果表明,基于条件去噪扩散概率模型的双重迁移学习极端负荷场景生成方法降低误差的效果,显著优于生成对抗网络等方法。基于鲁棒优化的配电网韧性提升方案显著提高了资源配置效率,实现了经济性与鲁棒性的更好平衡。【结论】所提负荷场景与鲁棒策略有效解决了极端气象下历史数据匮乏与应急决策不确定性的双重挑战。

Abstract

[Objective] Aiming at the problem that the frequent occurrence of extreme meteorological events poses a severe challenge to the safe and stable operation of distribution networks, a robust strategy for enhancing the resilience of distribution networks considering the generation of extreme meteorological load scenarios is proposed.[Methods] Firstly, aiming at the problem of scarce historical samples of extreme weather, a conditional denoising diffusion probability model based on the correlation sample expansion strategy is proposed. Combined with meteorological conditions and dual transfer learning, extreme weather load scenarios are generated. Secondly, a pre-fault two-stage robust optimization model for the is established based on the generated scenarios. Among them, the first stage involves decision-making on the location of the material transfer warehouse and the pre-allocation plan for materials; In the second stage, considering the worst-case scenario of the fuzzy distribution of failure scenarios and the decision-maker's risk preference, the load loss cost caused by material shortage is minimized. Finally, in the post-fault stage, a spatio-temporal optimization model considering the collaborative scheduling of maintenance teams and mobile power sources was established, aiming to minimize power outage losses and achieve efficient collaboration between fault repair and load recovery.[Results] The simulation results show that the dual transfer learning method for generating extreme load scenarios based on the conditional denoising diffusion probability model to reduce errors is significantly superior to methods such as generative adversarial networks. The distribution network resilience enhancement scheme based on robust optimization significantly improves the efficiency of resource allocation and achieves a better balance between economy and robustness.[Conclusions] The proposed load scenarios and robust strategies effectively address the dual challenges of scarce historical data and uncertainty in emergency decision-making under extreme weather conditions.

关键词

负荷场景 / 配电网韧性 / 去噪扩散概率模型 / 双重迁移学习 / 鲁棒优化

Key words

load scenario / resilience of distribution networks / denoising diffusion probability model / dual transfer learning / robust optimization

引用本文

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姚海佳, 林济铿, 罗萍萍, . 考虑极端气象负荷场景生成的配电网韧性提升风险规避鲁棒策略[J]. 电力建设. 2026, 47(6): 57-67 https://doi.org/10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.06.005
YAO Haijia, LIN Jikeng, LUO Pingping, et al. Risk Aversion Robust Strategies for Enhancing the Resilience of Distribution Networks Generated by Extreme Meteorological Load Scenarios[J]. Electric Power Construction. 2026, 47(6): 57-67 https://doi.org/10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.06.005
中图分类号: TM726   

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摘要
近年来,暴雨灾害对配电网可靠供电的影响日益突出,在大范围多点严重故障等情况下,重要负荷保供极具挑战.合理部署应急资源有助于减少系统重要负荷损失,进而提升配电系统韧性.为此,提出一种暴雨灾害下考虑多重不确定性的配电系统应急资源韧性规划方法,考虑应急电源和应急储能,建立配电系统韧性提升的双层规划模型,上层模型以投资成本与负荷损失的净费用最小为目标,下层模型以多种孤岛场景下的综合负荷损失最小为目标.此外,提出暴雨灾害下配网多孤岛场景的随机模拟生成方法,并基于每个场景的概率和严重程度,提出基于聚类算法的场景缩减方法,服务于下层优化模型的场景筛选.最后,基于配电网62节点系统进行算例分析,结果表明:所提方法能够在兼顾投资经济性的同时,有效降低系统在灾中的负荷损失量,提高配电网对重要负荷的保供能力.
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脚注

利益冲突声明(Conflict of Interests): 所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。

基金

国家自然科学基金项目(51177107)

编辑: 孙静琳
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