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基于时序大模型的小样本风电功率预测
Small-Sample Wind Power Forecasting Based on A Time-Series Large Model
【目的】主流深度学习模型虽在风电功率预测中表现优异,但高度依赖大量历史数据,在新建风电场或隐私保护等因素导致的小样本场景下,其预测性能往往显著下降。为此,提出了一种基于时序大模型的小样本风电功率预测方法。【方法】首先,采用均值缩放与均匀分箱技术对风电功率时间序列进行逐样本归一化与量化处理,将其转化为离散词元序列,以适配大模型的输入格式。其次,引入文本到文本迁移变换器架构作为核心预测模型,利用其在大规模多领域时序数据上预训练获得的通用表示能力,提取风电功率序列中的深层时序特征。最后,针对特定风电场的小样本数据,采用低秩适应技术对模型进行轻量化微调,在保留预训练知识的同时实现高效适配。【结果】仿真结果表明,在数据稀缺条件下,所提方法在不同季节、不同预测时长、不同区域的风电功率预测任务中的表现均优于多种主流深度学习模型,均方根误差和平均绝对误差较对比模型分别降低了15.18%~33.59%和10.18%~34.94%。【结论】所提方法能够有效利用时序大模型的迁移学习能力,实现小样本条件下的高精度风电功率预测,为新建风电场等数据受限场景下的高精度风电功率预测提供了一种可行且高效的技术路径。
[Objective] Although mainstream deep learning models have achieved excellent performance in wind power forecasting,they rely heavily on large amounts of historical data. In small-sample scenarios,such as newly built wind farms or situations involving privacy protection where data availability is limited,their prediction performance often declines significantly. To address this issue,a small-sample wind power forecasting method based on a time-series large model is proposed. [Methods] First,mean scaling and uniform binning techniques are employed to perform per-sample normalization and quantization of wind power time series,converting them into discrete token sequences so that they match the input format required by large models. Second,a text-to-text transfer transformer architecture is introduced as the core forecasting model. By leveraging the general representation capability obtained through pre-training on large-scale and multi-domain time-series data,the model is able to extract deep temporal features from wind power sequences. Finally,for the small-sample data from a specific wind farm,a lightweight fine-tuning strategy based on low-rank adaptation is adopted to efficiently adapt the model while preserving the knowledge learned during pre-training. [Results] Simulation results demonstrate that under data-scarce conditions,the proposed method outperforms several mainstream deep learning models in wind power forecasting tasks across different seasons,forecasting horizons,and regions. Compared with benchmark models,the root mean square error and mean absolute error are reduced by 15.18%-33.59% and 10.18%-34.94%,respectively. [Conclusions] The proposed method effectively uses the transfer learning capability of time-series large models to achieve high-accuracy wind power forecasting under small-sample conditions. It provides a feasible and efficient technical solution for high-precision wind power forecasting in data-limited scenarios such as newly built wind farms.
wind power forecasting / machine learning / large model / small sample
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Objectives Low-temperature weather poses challenges to the operation of power systems with a high proportion of new energy, such as wind power. Improving the accuracy of short-term wind power prediction under low-temperature conditions will provide effective decision-making information for power system scheduling and operation. To address this, a wind power prediction method considering the clustering of unit operation status under low-temperature conditions is proposed. Methods The fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering algorithm is used to cluster wind turbines based on their operation status and protection control information. Then, a prediction method based on support vector machine is proposed to predict whether the wind turbines are in normal operation status. The LightGBM algorithm in ensemble learning is employed to predict the power output of wind turbines under normal operation. Based on the prediction results of both operation status and power values, the overall wind power output of the wind farm is determined. Finally, a case study of a wind farm in northern Hebei is conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Results By fully utilizing the characteristics of wind turbine protection control behaviors under low temperatures, the proposed method accurately predicts the critical shutdown time of wind turbines and provides the shutdown capacity. It effectively fits the variation patterns of wind power curves,which improves the prediction accuracy of the wind power to more than 90%. Conclusion The proposed method can provide reliable prediction information for power scheduling and control. Additionally, it can provide a reference for short-term wind power prediction under other extreme weather conditions, such as strong winds. |
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To address the problem of inaccurate wind power prediction caused by the excessive volatility of wind power data, this paper proposes a generalized regression neural network (GRNN) method based on the optimization of complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and dung beetle optimizer (DBO). A combination of GRNN and DBO optimization is used for ultra-short-term wind power prediction. First, the original wind power sequence is subjected to time-lag characteristic analysis, and the time series with a strong correlation with the predicted moments is selected for multiplexed time-series modeling. Subsequently, the time series with strong time series are subjected to CEEMDAN decomposition, and a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual term are obtained. Second, the two sets of the above components are inputted into the GRNN network optimized by the DBO algorithm for the prediction of the components. Subsequently, the prediction components are superimposed to obtain the final prediction result. Example analysis shows that the CEEMDAN-DBO-GRNN prediction model proposed in this paper has higher prediction accuracy, and CEEMDAN can reduce the influence of wind power volatility and randomness on the prediction results. The prediction of the hyperparameter model optimized by the DBO algorithm improves the accuracy of the ultra-short-term wind power prediction to a certain extent.
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刘俊杰起草论文、修订论文、确定研究对象范围、收集数据、采集、清洗与分析数据,廖文龙参与论文修订、论文最终版本修订,张丞睿进行对比实验、实验分析,姚贝妮参与文献调研与整理,臧天磊、杨德昌、胡秦然参与论文修订、论文最终版本修订。所有作者均阅读并同意了论文终稿内容。
所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。
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