面向高比例新能源电力系统的大用户省间现货交易风险评估

姚寅, 高璐青, 周波, 马恒瑞, 李东东, 林顺富

电力建设 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9) : 201-212.

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PDF(1742 KB)
电力建设 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9) : 201-212. DOI: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.09.015
电力经济

面向高比例新能源电力系统的大用户省间现货交易风险评估

作者信息 +

Risk Evaluation for Inter Provincial Spot Trading of Large Users in High-Penetration Renewable Energy System

Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

【目的】近年我国可再生能源装机占比快速增加,源荷逆向分布矛盾日益突出。为缓解发电侧调度压力,电力大用户作为负荷侧的关键灵活性资源,将在维持电力供需平衡中发挥重要作用。当前电力市场模式正由“两次申报、协同出清”向“耦合申报、统一出清”演进。在此新模式下,大用户会直接暴露于省外新能源出力不确定性引发的级联风险中,而传统风险评估方法将难以适用。为此,本文提出将新能源出力不确定性作为单一风险源,构建信用-价格双维度风险评估模型,支持大用户在统一出清跨省交易中的风险管控决策。【方法】首先,基于方差法定量刻画由物理偏差引发的缺电、溢价及消纳等信用风险,并采用条件风险价值(conditional value-at-risk, CVaR)度量市场电价波动引致的极端、机会与波动等价格风险。其次,通过熵权法对上述多维度风险指标进行客观赋权,将其量化为风险成本并嵌入省间-省内统一出清,建立计及用户风险偏好的优化出清模型;最后,基于省间现货交易典型场景进行算例仿真,验证所提风险评估模型的有效性。【结果】算例表明,相较于采用通用风险指标,所提方法在新能源渗透率为10%~55%时可降低大用户购电成本1.4%~2.5%,且有效避免低价机会流失。【结论】所提风险评估指标能有效且较准确量化大用户在省间现货交易中由新能源不确定性引发的信用与价格风险,为差异化风险预警与购电决策提供量化依据。

Abstract

[Objective] In recent years, the installed capacity of renewable energy in China has rapidly increased, leading to an increasingly prominent contradiction between the reverse distribution of power supply and load. To alleviate generation-side scheduling pressure, large power consumers are regarded as key flexible resources on the load side and are utilized to maintain power supply-demand balance. The current electricity market model is evolving from "two-round declaration with coordinated clearing" approach to a "coupled declaration with unified clearing" mechanism. Under this new model, large consumers are directly exposed to cascading risks caused by the uncertainty of cross-provincial renewable energy output, making traditional risk assessment methods inadequate. To address this, this paper proposes treating renewable energy output uncertainty as a single risk source and constructing a dual-dimension risk assessment model based on credit and price, to support risk management decisions of large power consumers in unified-clearing cross-provincial transactions. [Methods] Firstly, quantitatively characterizing credit risks such as power shortages, premium pricing, and curtailment caused by physical deviations using the variance method, while measuring price risks including extreme, opportunity, and volatility risks arising from market electricity price fluctuations using conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Secondly, the entropy weight method is employed to objectively weight the aforementioned multi-dimensional risk indicators, quantifying them as risk costs and integrating them into inter-provincial-intra-provincial unified clearing to establish an optimized clearing model that accounts for consumer risk preferences. Finally, typical scenarios of inter-provincial spot trading are simulated to validate the effectiveness of the proposed risk assessment model. [Results] Compared with the generic risk indicators, the proposed method reduces electricity procurement costs for large consumers by 1.4%-2.5% under renewable penetration levels of 10%-55%. The low-price opportunity loss is effectively avoided. [Conclusions]The proposed risk evaluation indicators can effectively and accurately quantify renewable-energy-induced credit and price risks faced by large consumers in inter-provincial spot trading, thereby providing a quantitative basis for differentiated risk warning and power purchase decision-making.

关键词

省间电力现货市场 / 不确定性 / 风险量化 / 大用户决策 / 出清模型

Key words

interprovincial electricity spot market / uncertainty / risk quantification / large consumer decision-making / clearing model

引用本文

导出引用
姚寅, 高璐青, 周波, . 面向高比例新能源电力系统的大用户省间现货交易风险评估[J]. 电力建设. 2026, 47(9): 201-212 https://doi.org/10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.09.015
YAO Yin, GAO Luqing, ZHOU Bo, et al. Risk Evaluation for Inter Provincial Spot Trading of Large Users in High-Penetration Renewable Energy System[J]. Electric Power Construction. 2026, 47(9): 201-212 https://doi.org/10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.09.015
中图分类号: TM732   

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摘要
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作者贡献声明(Authors' Contributions):

姚寅提出研究思路,设计整体框架,参与修订论文;高璐青构建信用-价格双维度风险评估模型,参与撰写论文并修订论文;周波负责风险指标方法设计,参与修订论文;马恒瑞负责文献综述,参与模型讨论与算例验证;李东东负责新能源不确定性建模与场景生成,参与论文修订;林顺富审核风险评估逻辑与出清模型合理性。所有作者均阅读并同意了论文终稿内容。

利益冲突声明(Conflict of Interests):

所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。

基金

国家自然科学基金项目(52577119)

编辑: 张小飞
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