Reducing the energy consumption of power demand side is one important way for the energy saving and emission reduction of power industry. This paper put forward a simulation analysis and evaluation model for the carbon emission reduction potential of power demand side, based on LEAP （long-range energy alternatives planning） model and combined with the comparative analysis and scene analysis method. In the view of economic growth, industrial incentive policy, technological progress, population growth and per capita electricity consumption, 7 scenarios were designed and classified to 3 categories. This paper comprehensively analyzed and evaluated different scenarios from the angle of carbon emission growth rate and the contribute rate to carbon emission growth. The results show that from 2010 to 2030, the carbon emission in electric power industry increases 2,78%, 3,21% and 3,64% respectively； from 2030 to 2050, the carbon emission in electric power industry increases 0,69%, 1,09% and 1,51% respectively. During 2030 and 2050, the carbon emissions from resident living power will averagely occupy 21,71% and 45,36% of the new increased carbon emission of power industry. It can be concluded that the residents living power will be the main factor to the increase of carbon emission, and the rapid growth of tertiary industry electricity will be one of the important factors to the carbon emission increase of future power industry in China.

power industry, energy saving and emission reduction, LEAP model