可持续发展电源规划多目标决策模型研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2015.05.005

电力建设 ›› 2015, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 25-30.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2015.05.005

可持续发展电源规划多目标决策模型研究

袁兆祥¹,孔祥玉², 崔凯¹

1. 国网北京经济技术研究院，北京市102209；2. 智能电网教育部重点实验室（天津大学），天津市300072

出版日期:2015-05-01
作者简介:袁兆祥（1970），男，博士，高级工程师，长期从事电力系统规划、设计等方面的工作；孔祥玉（1978），男，博士，副教授，从事新能源接入，电力系统优化运行与控制等方面的研究工作；崔凯（1978），男，博士，高级工程师，长期从事配电网规划及管理、互联电网安全性评估、电网政策研究以及企业综合管理等方面的工作。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（51377119）

Multi-Objective Decision Making Model Research for Generation Expansion Planning with Sustainable Development

YUAN Zhaoxiang^1, KONG Xiangyu², CUI Kai ¹

1. State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China；2. Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China

Online:2015-05-01
Supported by:
Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China（51377119）

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在电源规划中，具有可持续发展的电源规划越来越受到重视。该文在综合考虑经济、科技、环境等多领域的情况下，分析了可持续发展的电源规划评价指标，并构建了考虑可持续发展的多目标电源规划决策模型。根据模型中目标变量、属性变量等因素变量特征分为不同的子集，并基于贝叶斯网络理论获得不同节点间的逻辑关系，降低了规划模型问题的复杂性。应用算例表明所提模型和求解方法可行、有效。

关键词: 电源规划, 可持续发展, 贝叶斯网络, 决策模型

Abstract:

People pay more and more attention on the sustainable development of generation expansion planning. Based on the comprehensive consideration on the economy, technology, environment of generation expansion planning, some evaluation indexes for generation expansion planning with sustainable development were proposed, and a multi-objective decision making model for generation expansion planning with sustainable development was constructed. Different subsets were divided according to the factor variable characteristics in model such as target variables, attribute variables, etc. And based on the theory of Bayesian network, a logical relationships analysis method for different subsets was obtained, which could reduce the complexity of the planning model. Application examples show that the proposed model and its solution method are feasible and effective.

Key words: generation expansion planning, sustainable development, Bayesian network, decision making model

中图分类号:

TM 715

袁兆祥,孔祥玉, 崔凯. 可持续发展电源规划多目标决策模型研究[J]. 电力建设, 2015, 36(5): 25-30.

YUAN Zhaoxiang, KONG Xiangyu, CUI Kai. Multi-Objective Decision Making Model Research for Generation Expansion Planning with Sustainable Development[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2015, 36(5): 25-30.

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可持续发展电源规划多目标决策模型研究

Multi-Objective Decision Making Model Research for Generation Expansion Planning with Sustainable Development

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