基于非时序生产模拟的风电消纳评估方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2015.10.020

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

准确的消纳能力评估对于风电发展规划具有重要意义,但在规划阶段难以获取详实的时序风电出力数据，典型的时序消纳评估方法难以适用，亟需研究根据有限的风资源概率特性数据进行消纳能力评估的方法。基于随机生产模拟原理，提出了一种以风电电量消纳最大化为目标的泛函极值模型和基于启发式方法的实用化评估算法。该方法仅需要风资源的概率分布信息，可较好解决规划阶段风电数据源有限的难题，且计算速度较快。基于我国北方某大型风电基地2014年实际运行数据及2020年规划数据,进行了仿真分析。通过2014年实际风电消纳结果及仿真结果的对比验证了所提方法的正确性，然后针对2020年规划数据分析了风电电量消纳与装机容量的饱和趋势，并定量研究了灵活性措施对风电消纳的促进作用，为风电规划提出了建议。

关键词: 风电消纳, 随机生产模拟, 泛函极值模型, 有限数据源

Abstract:

Accurate accommodation evaluation is important for the development planning of wind power. However, it is difficult to obtain the detailed time-sequence data of wind power output during planning stage and the typical evaluation method of time-sequence accommodation is difficult to be applied, so it is necessary to research the evaluation method of accommodation capacity based on the limited wind resource probabilistic characteristic data. This paper proposed a functional minimization model which took maximum wind power accommodation as target based on probability production simulation and a practical evaluation algorithm based on heuristic method. This method only needed the probability distribution information of wind resource and could solve the problem of lacking detailed wind power data during planning stage, which also had a fast computation speed. Based on the actual running data in 2014 and planning data in 2020 of a large wind power base in northern China, the simulation analysis was carried out. The actual wind power accommodation results in 2014 were compared with the simulation results, which could validity the correctness of the proposed method. Finally, according to the planning data in 2020, this paper analyzed the saturation trend of wind power accommodation and installed capacity, and quantitatively studied the promoting effect of flexible measures on wind power accommodation, which could provide some suggestions for wind power planning.

Key words: wind power accommodation, probabilistic production simulation, functional minimization model, limited data source

中图分类号:

TM 715

李海波，鲁宗相，乔颖，齐军2. 基于非时序生产模拟的风电消纳评估方法[J]. 电力建设, 2015, 36(10): 129-137.

LI Haibo, LU Zongxiang, QIAO Ying, QI Jun. Evaluation Method of Wind Power Accommodation Capacity Based on Non-Sequential Production Simulation[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2015, 36(10): 129-137.

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