基于小波-时间序列组合模型的风电功率预测

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2016.01.019

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着风电规模的不断扩大，及时准确地对风电场功率输出进行预测具有重要意义。但由于风速具有不确定性，风电功率难以掌控。通过分析风速与功率之间的变化趋势，建立基于风速的功率计算的数学模型，然后以风速预测为突破口，基于小波分解模型将历史无规律风速进行模式分解。对分解出来的历史数列进行分析，采用合适的预测模型分别预测，还原为原始数列得到预测风速，最后计算得到预测风电功率。通过某地的实例计算，证明了采用小波分解与时间序列模型进行风电功率预测的准确性与可靠性。

关键词: 风速, 风电功率, 小波分析, 时间序列

Abstract:

With the expansion of the scale of wind power, the timely and accurate prediction of wind power output is of great significance. However, due to the uncertainty of wind speed, the wind power is difficult to control. Through the trend analysis of wind speed and power, we establish a mathematical model of wind power based on wind speed. Then, taking the wind speed forecasting as a breakthrough point, the irregular history of wind speed is pattern decomposed based on wavelet decomposition mode. We analyzed the decomposed historical series, adopted the appropriate forecasting model to forecast respectively, reduced the series to the original series to obtained the predicted wind speed, finally obtained the predicted wind power through calculation. Through the calculation at a certain place, the accuracy and reliability of wind power forecasting with using wavelet decomposition and time series model are proved.

Key words: wind speed, wind power, wavelet analysis, time series

中图分类号:

TM 614

邱金鹏，牛东晓. 基于小波-时间序列组合模型的风电功率预测[J]. 电力建设, 2016, 37(1): 125-130.

QIU Jinpeng, NIU Dongxiao. Wind Power Prediction Based on Wavelet-Time Series Combined Model[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2016, 37(1): 125-130.

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