基于“性能-因素”关联关系挖掘的中压配电网可靠性评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000－7229.2016.11.009

电力建设 ›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (11): 55-.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000－7229.2016.11.009

基于“性能-因素”关联关系挖掘的中压配电网可靠性评估

苏韵掣1，刘俊勇1，刘友波1，成思琪2，高红均1，戴松灵3

1．四川大学电气信息学院，成都市 610065；2．国网成都供电公司,成都市 610041；
3．国网四川省电力公司电力经济技术研究院，成都市 610041

出版日期:2016-11-01
作者简介:苏韵掣（1992），男，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为配电网系统规划与可靠性分析计算; 刘俊勇（1963），男，教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为电力市场、电力系统稳定与控制、分布式发电及智能电网；刘友波（1983），男，博士，讲师，主要研究方向为电力系统暂态稳定与脆弱性；成思琪（1990），女，硕士，主要研究方向为微电网运行优化；高红均（1989），男，博士研究生，主要研究方向为电力系统优化调度；戴松灵（1963），男，高级工程师，主要研究方向为配电网规划。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（51437003）

Evaluation of Medium-Voltage Distribution Network Reliability Based on“Performance-Element” Correlation Mining

SU Yunche1, LIU Junyong1, LIU Youbo1, CHENG Siqi2, GAO Hongjun1, DAI Songling3

1. Department of Electrical Information, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China；
2. State Grid Chengdu Power Supply Company, Chengdu 610041, China；

3. Power Economic Research Institute, State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company, Chengdu 610041, China

Online:2016-11-01
Supported by:
Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51437003)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 从数据关联性分析的角度提出一种中压配电网可靠性定量快速评估方法。首先，基于多种提升配电网可靠性的方式，建立“性能－因素”双层评估指标体系分别表征系统的可靠性能及建设现状。然后，通过虚拟配电网生成系统计算我国海量不同类型配电网的相关指标以提供数据支撑。最后，建立分步回归模型挖掘指标关联关系，该模型结合对配电网故障模式的分析，将多元非线性回归问题转化为多次单元回归问题并最终求得指标关联显性表达式。对3个算例系统及一个实际系统的可靠性评估验证了模型的有效性。

关键词: , 中压配电网, 可靠性评估, 海量数据生成, 关联关系挖掘

Abstract: This paper proposes a fast and quantitative reliability evaluation method for medium-voltage distribution network by using data correlation analysis. First, we establish “performance-element” double-deck evaluation system based on distribution network reliability improving methods, which symbolizes the reliable performance and construction status of the system, respectively. Second, through virtual distribution network simulation system we calculate enormous indexes of different kinds of distribution network to provide data support. Last, we establish stepwise regression model to analyze the correlation among indexes, which transforms the multivariate nonlinear regression problem into the multi-step simple regression problem with considering distribution network failure mode, and finally obtains index correlation explicit expression. The validity of the proposed model has been verified through the reliability evaluation on three test distribution network and one real distribution system.

Key words: medium-voltage distribution network, reliability evaluation, enormous data generation, correlation analysis

中图分类号:

TM 72

苏韵掣，刘俊勇，刘友波，成思琪，高红均，戴松灵. 基于“性能-因素”关联关系挖掘的中压配电网可靠性评估[J]. 电力建设, 2016, 37(11): 55-.

SU Yunche, LIU Junyong, LIU Youbo, CHENG Siqi, GAO Hongjun, DAI Songling. Evaluation of Medium-Voltage Distribution Network Reliability Based on“Performance-Element” Correlation Mining[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2016, 37(11): 55-.

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基于“性能-因素”关联关系挖掘的中压配电网可靠性评估

Evaluation of Medium-Voltage Distribution Network Reliability Based on“Performance-Element” Correlation Mining

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