• CSCD核心库收录期刊
  • 中文核心期刊
  • 中国科技核心期刊

电力建设 ›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 85-.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2017.03.012

• 智能电网 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于KPCA和NSGAII优化CNN参数的电动汽车充电站短期负荷预测

 牛东晓,马天男,王海潮,刘鸿飞,黄雅莉   

  1.  华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市102206
  • 出版日期:2017-03-01
  • 作者简介:牛东晓(1962),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,本文涉及课题负责人,研究方向为项目预测与决策理论及其应用、项目综合评价方法及其应用; 马天男(1992),男,博士,研究方向为输电线路覆冰预测、电力负荷预测、技术经济评价及预测; 王海潮(1994),男,硕士研究生,本文通信作者,研究方向为电力负荷预测、技术经济评价及预测; 刘鸿飞(1990),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为电力负荷预测、输配电网评估方法及应用; 黄雅莉(1991),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为输电线路覆冰预测、输配电网评估方法及应用。
  • 基金资助:
     国家自然科学基金项目(71471059);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2015XS36)

 Short-Term Load Forecasting of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Based on KPCA and CNN Parameters Optimized by NSGAII

 NIU Dongxiao, MA Tiannan, WANG Haichao, LIU Hongfei, HUANG Yali   

  1.  College of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
  • Online:2017-03-01
  • Supported by:
     Project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(71471059);The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2015XS36)
     

摘要:  为提升电动汽车充电站短期负荷预测的效率和精度,提出了基于核主成分分析(kernel principal component analysis,KPCA)和非劣排序遗传算法II(non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II,NSGAII)优化卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network, CNN)的充电站短期负荷预测方法。应用KPCA对模型输入变量进行降噪处理,简化了网络结构,加快了预测速度;通过多次负荷预测测试比较误差的方式确定卷积神经网络模型中卷积层和子采样层的最佳神经元个数,保证了预测方法的准确性;利用NSGAII对卷积神经网络的参数进行优化,提高了预测方法的运算速度和预测精度。通过算例分析以及和其他方法的对比,验证了文中方法具有较高的效率和精度。

 

关键词:  , 电动汽车充电站, 短期负荷预测, 核主成分分析(KPCA), 非劣排序遗传算法II(NSGAII), 卷积神经网络(CNN)

Abstract:  In order to improve the short-term load forecasting efficiency and precision of electric vehicle charging station, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting method for charging station based on kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGAII). The KPCA is used to reduce the noise of the model input variables, which simplifies the network structure and accelerates the prediction speed. Through the comparison of the load forecasting error to define the convolutional neural network (CNN) model in convolution layers and sub sampling the top layer neurons number, the accuracy of the model is guaranteed. By using the NSGAII to optimize the parameters of the CNN, the operation speed and precision of the prediction method are improved. Through example analysis and comparison with other methods, it is proved that the method has high efficiency and precision.

 

Key words:  electric vehicle charging station, short-term load forecasting, kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGAII), convolutional neural network (CNN)

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