计及风-光出力时变相关特性的输电可靠性裕度评估

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2021.09.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

风-光并网背景下,为准确评估风-光相关性出力及系统输电可靠性裕度(transmission reliability margin,TRM),提出了一种计及风-光出力时变相关特性的TRM评估方法。首先,计及风-光出力存在的时变相关特性和季节特性,提出了基于时变Copula函数的风-光24 h联合出力场景生成方法,所生成的场景为准确评估TRM提供基础。然后,在考虑TRM时间尺度特性的同时,引入GlueVaR度量系统存在的传输能力缺额风险,进而构建了区分决策者不同风险偏好的TRM期望净收益模型。最后,以风-光场景集为基础,利用序贯蒙特卡洛模拟方法生成系统时序运行场景集,结合IEEE-RTS系统利用优化算法求解模型。与以往方法相比,所提评估方法不仅提高了风-光出力场景生成的精度,而且保障了系统的可靠经济运行,实现了TRM的差异化评估。

Abstract:

In the context of wind-solar grid integration, in order to accurately evaluate wind-solar correlation output and system transmission reliability margin (TRM), a TRM evaluation method taking into account the time-varying characteristics of wind-solar output is proposed. First, considering the time-varying correlation characteristics and seasonal characteristics of wind-solar output, a method based on the time-varying Copula function for wind-solar 24h joint output scene generation is proposed. The generated scene provides the basis for accurate TRM evaluation. Then, while considering the characteristics of the TRM time scale, the GlueVaR measurement system is introduced to measure the risk of transmission capacity deficiency, and a TRM expected net return model that distinguishes the different risk preferences of decision makers is constructed. Finally, applying wind-solar scene set, the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate the system's time-series operation scene set, and the IEEE-RTS system is used to solve the model using optimization algorithms. Compared with previous methods, the simulation results indicated that the proposed method can not only improve the accuracy of wind-solar joint output scene generation, but also guarantee the reliable and economic operation of power system and realize differentiated evaluation of TRM.

Key words: transmission reliability margin, time-varying correlation characteristics, time-varying Copula, wind-solar 24h joint output scene, GlueVaR

中图分类号:

TM712

高建伟, 郭贵雨, 郎宇彤, 高芳杰, 马泽洋. 计及风-光出力时变相关特性的输电可靠性裕度评估[J]. 电力建设, 2021, 42(9): 85-95.

GAO Jianwei, GUO Guiyu, LANG Yutong, GAO Fangjie, MA Zeyang. Evaluation of Transmission Reliability Margin Taking into Account the Time-Varying Correlation Characteristics of Wind-Solar Output[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2021, 42(9): 85-95.

图/表 16

图1 典型日出力

Fig.1 Typical daily power output

表1 拟合优度对比

Table 1 Comparison of goodness of fit

图2 联合出力分布函数的构建

Fig.2 Construction of joint output distribution function

图3 系统运行场景集生成流程图

Fig.3 Flowchart of system operation scenario set generation

图4 传输能力跌落的产生与抵御

Fig.4 Generation and resistance of transmission capacity drops

图5 IEEE-RTS系统图

Fig.5 IEEE-RTS system diagram

图6 算例求解流程

Fig.6 Example solution process

图7 风-光联合出力典型场景

Fig.7 Typical scene of wind-solar joint output

表2 确定静态最优Copula函数

Table 2 Determination of the static optimal Copula function

表3 不同场景生成方法距离值

Table 3 Distance values of different scene generation methods

图8 典型场景每时刻传输容量跌落值

Fig.8 Transmission capacity drop value at each moment in typical scenarios

图9 TRM与对应期望净收益

Fig.9 TRM and corresponding expected net income

图10 不同风险偏好下的迭代过程

Fig.10 Iterative process under different risk preferences

表4 不同风险偏好下的最优TRM值和期望净收益值

Table 4 Optimal TRM values and expected net profit values under different risk preferences

表5 风险厌恶下设置不同TRM的期望净收益值

Table 5 Expected net profit values when setting different TRM under risk aversion

表6 不同TRM计算方法对比

Table 6 Comparison of different TRM calculation methods

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