新型电力系统电力电量平衡概率性分析实用方法研究

李宛洳; 郭瑾程; 王建学; 王秀丽; 杨钤; 马骞

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电力建设 ›› 2025

新型电力系统电力电量平衡概率性分析实用方法研究

李宛洳¹, 郭瑾程¹, 王建学¹, 王秀丽¹, 杨钤¹, 马骞²

作者信息 +

A Practical Method for Probabilistic Analysis of Electric Power and Energy Balance of New Power System

LI Wanru¹, GUO Jincheng¹, WANG Jianxue¹, WANG Xiuli¹, YANG Qian¹, MA Qian²

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摘要

【目的】高比例新能源并网带来的强随机性以及极端事件频发,使得采用确定性方式构建电力电量平衡分析表的模式越来越不适用。【方法】在保留多年实践广受认可的平衡表格形式基础上,构建概率性场景,设计了电力电量平衡概率性分析实用方法。具体包括：建立了概率性电力电量平衡分析框架,提出了典型场景、边缘场景和极端场景的构建方法;设计了概率性电力电量平衡表整体架构,并根据平衡裕度和新能源消纳指数指标进行平衡风险判断;针对平衡风险严重的重点时段,进一步设计了电力电量平衡分析指标体系,并采用时序生产模拟进行精细化的平衡状态评估。【结果】改进ROTS测试系统概率性电力电量平衡表结果显示全年处于紧平衡状态;在11月91.36%概率的典型场景,可以保持电力电量平衡;在11月供应最紧张场景,电量平衡裕度为97%,最大电力不足为缺额2.66 GW,与时序生产模拟的结果接近。【结论】测试系统算例验证了所提方法既能较好适应高比例新能源并网场景,也能根据平衡风险采用不同维度分析,能很好满足工程应用需要。

Abstract

[Objective] With the strong randomness and frequent occurrence of extreme events brought about by the high proportion of new energy grid connection, the model of using deterministic methods to construct power and energy balance tables becomes unsuitable. [Methods] On the basis of the widely recognized balance table form that has been practiced for many years, this article constructs probabilistic scenarios and designs a practical method for probabilistic analysis of power and energy balance. Specifically, a probabilistic analysis framework for power and energy balance is established, and methods for constructing typical, edge, and extreme scenarios are proposed. The overall framework of the probabilistic power and energy balance table is designed, and balancing risk assessment based on indicators of balance margin and new energy consumption index is conducted. For key periods with severe balancing risks, an index system of power and energy balance analysis is designed, and a refined balance state evaluation is carried out using time-series production simulation. [Results] The results of the probabilistic power and energy balance table of the improved ROTS test system show that it is in a tight balance state throughout the year; in a typical scenario with a probability of 91.36% in November, the power and energy balance can be maintained; in the tightest supply scenario in November, the energy balance margin is 97% and the maximum power shortage is 2.66 GW, which are close to the results of the time-series production simulation. [Conclusions] The test system examples verify that the proposed method can not only adapt well to high proportion of new energy grid-connected scenarios, but also adopt different dimensions of analysis based on balancing risks, which can well meet the needs of engineering applications.

导出引用

李宛洳, 郭瑾程, 王建学, 王秀丽, 杨钤, 马骞. 新型电力系统电力电量平衡概率性分析实用方法研究[J]. 电力建设. 2025

LI Wanru, GUO Jincheng, WANG Jianxue, WANG Xiuli, YANG Qian, MA Qian. A Practical Method for Probabilistic Analysis of Electric Power and Energy Balance of New Power System[J]. Electric Power Construction. 2025

中图分类号： TM73

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