在气候变化的背景下，中国电力行业承担着重要的减排任务，而分布式能源已成为电力行业减排的重要选项。本文在对国内外重要文献进行回顾的基础上，对影响可再生能源发电的重要因素（如成本、 技术成熟度）进行分析和预测，并结合资源潜力、经济发展和环境约束等因素建立了中国可再生能源发电优化模型（China renewable energy optimization model, CREOP）。模型对2020年可再生能源发电的潜力进行了预测，探讨了各种发电技术的发展特点及其单位投资成本的变化趋势，并对其各自的主要影响因素进行分析。文章的结果对于我国中长期能源规划具有很强的借鉴意义。

In the context of climate change, China's power industry undertakes the important task of reducing emissions. Distributed energy has been an important reduction option for power industry. In this paper, based on the review of important literatures, important factors affecting renewable energy generation (such as cost, technical maturity) are analyzed. Combined with factors such as resource potential, economic development and environmental constraints, China renewable energy optimization model, CREOP, is constructed. The model predicts the potential of renewable energy generation in 2020; explores the development characteristics of various power generation technologies and their trends of unit investment cost. The results have a strong reference for long-term energy planning in China.