Long Distance DC Transmission Scheme Planning for Energy Base of Wind-Gas Based on Statistical Analysis

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2020.10.008

Abstract

Abstract:

The large-scale development of wind power resources and the increasing proportion of natural gas consumption in primary energy have brought new challenges to the planning and operation of power systems. In order to transmit large-capacity wind power to load centers thousands of kilometers away, UHV DC transmission systems with long-distance, large-capacity, and low-loss power transmission capabilities are adopted. This paper proposes a statistical analysis method of wind-gas transmission capacity based on the confidence level for long-distance transmission of energy bases with abundant wind power and natural gas resources. Considering comprehensive various factors such as randomness of energy output, economic, technical and environmental nature of transmission scheme, and endurance capacity of receiving end system, a long-distance DC transmission evaluation index system is established for the wind-gas energy base. According to improved prospect theory, candidate schemes for HVDC transmission systems are comprehensively optimally selected. In the example analysis, the application scope of different transmission schemes is analyzed by the sensitivity method, and the superiority of the proposed planning scheme is verified, which provides a reference for scientific decision-making of large-capacity long-distance DC transmission planning.

Key words: statistical analysis, stochasticity, wind-gas energy base, transmission planning, scheme comparison

CLC Number:

TM715

DUAN Mian, LI Yonghui, YANG Jun, CHANG Xiqiang, ZHAO Qiang, LIU Peixian, Ghamgeen Izat RASHED. Long Distance DC Transmission Scheme Planning for Energy Base of Wind-Gas Based on Statistical Analysis[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2020, 41(10): 71-80.

Figures/Tables 15

Fig.1 Fitting of wind-gas mixed output distribution at σ confidence level

Fig.2 Comprehensive evaluation index system

Fig.3 Cumulative curve of climbing amount of wind-gas output

Fig.4 Continuous output curve of wind-gas

Fig.5 Life consumption of IGBT in the converter

Fig.6 Credibility of the end capacity affected by different factors

Fig.7 Improved foreground value function

Fig.8 Distribution of wind-gas mixed output

Table 1 Fitting situation of wind-gas mixed output distribution

Fig.9 Transmission capacity indication under 95% confidence level

Table 2 Comprehensive outlook value for different types of decision makers

Table 3 Project number of different types of decision makers in ascending order of foreground value

Fig.10 Several situations in which foreground value ranking varies with sensitivity

Table A1 Index values of transmission schemes based on different confidence levels

Table A2 Subjective and objective comprehensive weighting of 7 indicators of 22 schemes at a sensitivity of 80%

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