An Evaluation Method for New Energy Power Prediction Based on Flexibility Matrix and TOPSIS Method

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2021.02.005

Abstract

Abstract:

Considering the importance of evaluation of power prediction for power system operation and dispatching, this paper takes the actual demand of gird dispatching into consideration and analyzes the irrationality of existing prediction evaluation indices from two aspects: the output of units in different periods and the demand of grid dispatching for forecasting accuracy in different periods. And some new evaluation indices are put forward. Firstly, the flexibility matrix of the system in different periods is calculated and pretreated. Secondly, the processed flexibility matrix is input into the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) model. According to the closeness of the evaluation object and the idealized target, the flexibility in different periods is sorted and normalized to obtain the weight coefficient matrix, and then a new evaluation index is formed. Finally, the evaluation index proposed in this paper is compared with other indices. The simulation results show that the evaluation indices proposed in this paper can better reflect the influence of system flexibility on power prediction evaluation and meet the requirements of grid dispatching.

Key words: evaluation of power prediction, system flexibility, TOPSIS model, weight coefficient matrix

CLC Number:

TM731

YIN Rui, SHI Min, WANG Tieqiang, LI Zhenghui, LIU Jiaming, ZHEN Zhao, GUO Huaidong, WANG Fei. An Evaluation Method for New Energy Power Prediction Based on Flexibility Matrix and TOPSIS Method[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2021, 42(2): 35-42.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig.1 Actual and predicted new energy curves

Fig.2 The influence of heating season and non-heating season on unit operation

Fig.3 Technical flowchart

Fig.4 Analysis of unit operation scenario

Fig.5 Curves of total load, net load and new energy output

Fig.6 The weight index of heating and non-heating season

Table 1 The accuracy in different months%

Fig.7 Curves of new energy output and system flexibility in heating season

Fig.8 Accuracy index of typical days in heating season

Fig.9 Curves of new energy output and system flexibility in non-heating season

Fig.10 Accuracy index of typical days in non-heating season

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