Medium- and Long-term Trading Cooperation Game Decision of Power Generating & Trading Integrated Company Based on Dynamically Adjusted Risk Aversion Factor

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2023.05.015

Abstract

Abstract:

At present, China’s electricity market is mainly based on medium- and long-term transactions and is gradually transitioning to a market model of long-term transactions and spot transactions. As a new market entity, integrated power generation and trading companies face the risk of profit loss caused by uncertain factors, such as the unstable output of renewable energy generating units and load fluctuation of end users. In this study, a continuous dynamic adjustment method for risk aversion factors is proposed, and a conditional value risk model of profit and loss for power-generating and power-trading companies is developed. On this basis, the medium- and long-term trading profit under the cooperative game between power generation and power trading companies is consistently higher than the profit under the non-cooperative game as a constraint, and a medium- and long-term trading cooperation game decision-making model of integrated companies considering the risk of profit loss and the optimal shareholding ratio of power generation and power trading is proposed. Numerical simulation results show that the alliance transaction effectively improve the profits of all subsidiaries. The relationship between the value of the dynamic adjustment risk aversion factor and subsidiary trading profits is analyzed. The trading price interval for the cooperative game is provided.

Key words: medium- and long-term trading, power-generating and trading integrated company, dynamically adjustable risk aversion factor, cooperative game

CLC Number:

TM73

YANG Hongming, WU Jingbin. Medium- and Long-term Trading Cooperation Game Decision of Power Generating & Trading Integrated Company Based on Dynamically Adjusted Risk Aversion Factor[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2023, 44(5): 149-160.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig.1 Medium- and long-term transaction model of the power generating/trading company

Fig.2 Medium- and long-term transaction sequence path of the power generating/trading group

Fig.3 Medium- and long-term transaction Nash negotiation model solving process of the power generating/trading group

Table 1 Transaction parameter of medium- and long-term wholesale market

Fig.4 Cluster scenario of typical monthly power generation

Fig.5 Cluster scenario of typical monthly power consumption

Fig.6 Relationship between transaction profit and the value of dynamic adjustment risk aversion factor

Table 2 Annual transaction profit of power generating/trading integrated company before and after alliance game

Fig.7 Transaction profit of the wind power subsidiary

Fig.8 Transaction profit of the thermal power subsidiary

Fig.9 Transaction profit of the power trading subsidiary

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