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Power Grid Voltage Phasor Trajectory Fitting and Transient Stability Evaluation Index Construction Based on Alternate Direction Multiplier Method
MA Haibin, LIU Daowei, ZHAO Gaoshang, YANG Hongying, YUAN Fei, GAO Shen
Electric Power Construction ›› 2023, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (12) : 136-147.
PDF(10097 KB)
PDF(10097 KB)
Power Grid Voltage Phasor Trajectory Fitting and Transient Stability Evaluation Index Construction Based on Alternate Direction Multiplier Method
The quantitative assessment of the transient stability of a power system constitutes the basis of the online security defense of a large power grid, and the construction of a transient stability prediction index based on the dynamic trajectory information of the power grid is key. The grid voltage phasor trajectory information contains richer stable behavior characteristics. In this study, using a dual-machine system as an example, the evolution law between the transient energy conversion of the generator and the voltage phase trajectory is first analyzed from the perspective of trajectory geometry. The reasoning is based on the EEAC. Thus, the universality of the multi-machine system is verified. To realize the fast prediction of transient stability, a trajectory fitting method based on the alternating direction multiplier method is proposed, which has obvious advantages in fitting accuracy and speed. Based on the arc length distance of the voltage phasor trajectory fitting curve as the data support, a fast prediction index of transient stability is constructed. Finally, the evaluation accuracy of the proposed method is verified using the simulation data of a 10-machine, 39-node system in New England and a provincial power grid as examples.
voltage phasor trajectory / trajectory fitting / transient stability / evaluation index
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电能替代成为能源转型发展的重要趋势和关键路径,节能量的快速准确估计有利于电能替代项目的推广。为充分利用少量电能替代项目调试期数据快速估计节能量,提出了一种基于迁移学习的单位节能量在线估计方法。首先利用回归算法对大量基期样本展开训练,获得基期能耗模型;其次,利用基于迁移学习的回归算法对大量基期样本、少量调试期样本展开训练,并通过不同的权重更新策略迭代调整基期样本、调试期样本权重,获得调试期能耗模型;最后,采用归一法获得参考条件下能耗差值,即单位节能量。针对干燥领域的电能替代进行仿真分析,证明了所提方法的有效性,并研究了迭代次数、样本数目和样本组合对所提算法预测误差的影响。
Electric energy substitution has become an important trend and key path for the development of energy transition. The rapid and accurate estimation of energy saving is conductive to the promotion of electric energy substitution projects. To make full use of a small amount of the operation data during the electric energy adjustment period to achieve the purpose of rapid energy-saving estimation, this paper proposes an online unit energy-saving estimation method based on transfer learning. In this method, we firstly use regression algorithm to train a large amount of base period samples to obtain a base period energy consumption model. Secondly, we use the regression algorithm based on transfer learning to train a large amount of base period samples and a small amount of adjustment period samples together, and use different weight updating strategies to iteratively adjust the weights of the based period samples and the adjustment period samples to obtain an adjustment period energy consumption model. Finally, the normalization method is used to obtain the energy consumption difference under the reference conditions, that is, the unit energy-saving amount. In this paper, the simulation analysis of electric energy substitution in the drying field proves the effectiveness of the proposed method, and shows the influence of the iteration times, sample number, the way of sample combination on the prediction errors of the proposed algorithm. |
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目前电动公交车的渗透率较大,且充电频率和充电量较高,故而其充电负荷对电网运行与调度产生着不可忽略的影响。因此,电动公交车的充电负荷预测研究具有重要的理论与现实意义,但由于公交车间歇性与随机性的充电行为在时间上给充电负荷预测增加了难度。为此,提出基于谱聚类和长短期记忆(long short-term memory,LSTM)神经网络的电动公交车充电负荷预测方法。首先,利用考虑距离与形态的谱聚类,对充电负荷曲线进行聚类;其次,综合考虑影响充电负荷的关键因素,如温度、日类型等,利用不同簇的总充电负荷,分别训练LSTM神经网络的模型参数,并预测每簇的充电负荷;接着,对不同簇的预测结果求和即可得到预测日的总充电负荷;最后,通过利用某市实际数据,验证本文所提方法。结果表明,所提方法充电负荷预测结果的平均绝对百分误差(mean absolute percentage error, MAPE)在11%以下,预测准确度有所提升。
At present, the penetration rate, charging frequency and charging capacity of electric buses are relatively high, so the charging load has a non-negligible impact on the operation and dispatch of the power grid. So, the charging load forecasting research has important theoretical and practical significance, but the intermittent and random charging behavior increase the spatial forecasting difficulty. Therefore, the charging load forecasting method of electric buses is proposed on the basis of spectral clustering and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network. First of all, the charging load curve is clustered according to spectral clustering considering the distance and the shape. And then, considering the key factors that affect the charging load, such as historical load, temperature and day type, the model parameter of LSTM neural network is trained using each cluster charging load, and the charging load of each cluster is predicted. Then, the total charging load of the forecasting day is to sum the forecasting results of different clusters. Finally, on the basis of the historical real data in a certain city, the proposed method is verified. The result shows the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of charging load prediction result of the proposed method is below 11%, and the accuracy of load forecasting is improved. |
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李建宜, 李鹏, 徐晓春, 等. 基于综合概率模型与深度学习的智能电网功率-电压映射方法[J]. 电力建设, 2022, 43(2): 37-44.
随着新能源及分布式发电渗透率的增加,其间歇性强、波动性大等特性对电网电压波动造成较大影响,如何更加快速地计算包含复杂分布式电源接入的电力系统稳态电压具有重要意义。通过对大量风机、光伏真实出力数据采样,在传统概率模型的基础上改进生成综合概率模型,并通过马尔科夫转移概率矩阵修正因时空特性产生的概率分布偏差。然后,以中国南方某地区相邻光伏、风电场实际出力数据为样本,基于配电网拓扑结构,在不同场景下计算其各节点稳态电压。最后,算例结果表明,改进方法模拟生成的电网模型具有较高真实性和适用性,计算所得的电压具有较高准确率。并且,相较传统电力系统潮流计算,极大减少计算时间,从而在控制效果上具有更好的跟随性,适用于复杂新能源电力系统稳态电压的计算。
With the increase in the penetration rate of new energy based distributed power generation, its characteristics such as strong intermittent and high volatility will have a greater impact on grid voltage fluctuations. How to calculate the steady-state voltage of the power grid with complex distributed power access more quickly is of great significance. In this paper, by sampling a great deal of real output data of photovoltaic and wind power, a comprehensive probability model is improved and generated on the basis of the traditional probability model, and the probability distribution deviation caused by the temporal and spatial characteristics is corrected through the Markov transition probability matrix. Then, taking the actual output data of adjacent photovoltaic and wind power stations in a certain area of southern China as a sample, the steady-state voltage at each node of the distribution network under different scenarios is calculated in the distribution network topology. Finally, the results of the calculation example show that the power grid model generated by the improved method simulation in this paper has high authenticity and applicability, and the calculated voltages have high accuracy rate. Moreover, compared with the traditional power system flow calculation, the calculation time is greatly reduced, so that it has better follow-up in the control effect, and is suitable for the calculation of the steady-state voltage of the complex power system with new energy. |
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