Scenario Deduction Method for Attack-Defense Games of Power Systems Under Unconventional Extreme Events

LEI Aoyu, TAN Weitao, LI Jialu, WANG Hong, ZHONG Xingli, ZENG Yongjie, ZHOU Kun, HUANG Meiying

Electric Power Construction ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (11) : 89-101.

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Electric Power Construction ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (11) : 89-101. DOI: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.11.007
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Scenario Deduction Method for Attack-Defense Games of Power Systems Under Unconventional Extreme Events

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Abstract

[Objective] As a critical national infrastructure, power systems are vital to national security and socioeconomic development, and their secure and stable operation is of great significance. In recent years, the international security environment has become increasingly complex, and unconventional extreme risks such as external strikes have posed growing threats to power systems. Nevertheless, few studies have focused on characterizing such extreme risks and developing targeted defensive countermeasures. Accordingly, this paper proposes a scenario deduction method for attack-defense games of power systems facing unconventional extreme events. [Methods] First, models for node attack failure and optimal dispatch response are constructed. A coupled node load-centrality index is adopted to screen candidate critical nodes so as to reduce the search dimension of attack-defense strategies. Second, multiple scenarios with different attack scales are established to account for the uncertainty of attack resources. On this basis, a sequential attack-defense-system-response game model is formulated and solved via the column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. Finally, simulation verifications are carried out on the IEEE 30-bus and IEEE 57-bus test systems. [Results] The results show that for the IEEE 30-bus system, the optimal defended nodes derived from the attack-defense game are {8,12}, and the expected weighted load shedding is reduced by 24.51% compared with the no-defense scenario. For the IEEE 57-bus system, the optimal defended nodes are {12,8,9,1}, and the expected weighted load shedding is reduced by 77.46% relative to the no-defense scenario. [Conclusions] The proposed method can comprehensively take into account attack-target selection, attack-resource uncertainty and system dispatch response. It helps identify critical nodes with high protection benefits under limited defense resources, and provides a basis for risk scenario deduction and defense-resource allocation of power systems under unconventional extreme events.

Key words

power system / unconventional extreme event / attack-defense game / attack-resource uncertainty / optimal defense strategy / system resilience

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LEI Aoyu , TAN Weitao , LI Jialu , et al . Scenario Deduction Method for Attack-Defense Games of Power Systems Under Unconventional Extreme Events[J]. Electric Power Construction. 2026, 47(11): 89-101 https://doi.org/10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2026.11.007

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The impact of climate change on human society has attracted more and more attention, and the risk of power outage caused by a series of extreme weather is becoming more and more significant. In order to deal with climate change, especially extreme weather, human society needs to adopt two coping strategies of mitigation and adaptation. For the developing countries and small island countries, since climate change has already taken place, the climate problem will first be adaptation. In order to solve the problem of how the power system can fully adapt to climate change from all aspects, a power system development system adapted to climate change was established, and a construction method of power system development path covering extreme meteorological factors was proposed. On the basis of summarizing the impacts of various extreme weather on the power system, the vulnerability of power grid was evaluated. The overall strategy of adapting to extreme weather was studied, and the scheme of power system adapting to extreme weather events was proposed, namely planning-construction-emergency management-assessment (PCEA) disaster resistance system. In the planning stage, the study focused on the minimum power grid planning and built the minimum power grid backbone network without power outage. Based on the application examples in different stages of the scheme, it was verified that the PCEA system can make the power system better adapt to the extreme weather.

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Abstract
目的 为应对极端高温天气对电力系统供需平衡造成的冲击,提出一种面向中长期的电力系统韧性提升方法。 方法 首先,模拟持续性极端高温场景下“源-荷”耦合出力特性,并利用时序运行模拟模型对系统韧性表现进行初评估;其次,基于运行模拟结果,在电力供需平衡的基础上以供电成本与负荷削减成本之和最小为目标,建立面向韧性提升的电力资源规划模型,得到韧性提升组合措施;最后,对韧性提升策略场景进行运行模拟,以验证其有效性。 结果 以2025年广东省为案例场景,与未实施电力系统韧性提升策略的场景相比,实施策略后极端高温天气下系统累积缺供电量、最大失负荷规模和因电力短缺而造成的经济损失分别降低了86.71%、60.72%和91.55%,系统最小供电水平提升了11.07%。 结论 通过协同供电资源扩容与负荷资源部署,电力系统韧性提升策略有效地提升了极端高温天气下系统的供电能力,同时降低了因电力短缺而造成的经济损失和社会代价。
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Objectives To address the impact of extreme high-temperature weather on the supply and demand balance of power systems, a medium- to long-term method for enhancing power system resilience is proposed. Methods First, the coupled “source-load” output characteristics under sustained extreme high-temperature scenarios are simulated, and an initial evaluation of system resilience is performed using a chronological operation simulation model. Second, based on the operation simulation results, a resilience enhancement-oriented power resource planning model is established, with the objective of minimizing the combined cost of power supply and load shedding under the constraint of supply and demand balance, thereby deriving combined measures for resilience enhancement. Finally, operation simulations of the resilience enhancement strategy scenarios are conducted to verify their effectiveness. Results Taking Guangdong Province in 2025 as a case study, compared with the scenario without the implementation of the resilience enhancement strategies for power systems, the application of such strategies under extreme high-temperature weather decreases the cumulative power shortage, maximum lost load scale, and economic losses caused by power shortage by 86.71%, 60.72%, and 91.55%, respectively. The system’s minimum power supply level increases by 11.07%. Conclusions By coordinating the expansion of power supply resources and deployment of load resources, the resilience enhancement strategies effectively improve the power system’s supply capacity under extreme high-temperature weather, while reducing the economic loss and social cost caused by power shortages.

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In today’s world, power distribution systems and information and communication technology (ICT) systems are increasingly interconnected, forming cyber–physical power systems (CPPSs) at the core of smart grids. Ensuring the resilience of these systems is essential for maintaining reliable performance under disasters, failures, or cyber-attacks. Identifying critical nodes within these interdependent networks is key to preserving system robustness. This paper applies complex network (CN) theory—specifically degree centrality (DC), closeness centrality (CC), and betweenness centrality (BC)—to a real-world distribution grid integrated with an ICT layer in northeastern Italy. Simulations are conducted across three scenarios: a directed power network, an undirected power network, and an undirected ICT network. Each centrality metric generates a ranking of nodes which is validated using node removal performance (NRP) analysis. In the directed power network, in-closeness centrality and out-degree centrality are the most effective in identifying critical nodes, with correlations of 84% and 74% with NRP, respectively. DC and BC perform best in the undirected power network, with correlation values of 67% and 53%, respectively. In the ICT network, BC achieves the highest correlation (64%), followed by CC at 55%. These findings demonstrate the potential of centrality-based methods for identifying critical nodes and support strategies for enhancing CPPS resilience and fault recovery by distribution system operators.
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Footnotes

利益冲突声明(Conflict of Interests): 所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。

作者贡献声明(Authors' Contributions): 雷傲宇提出论文基本框架与研究方向;谭伟涛设计研究思路,开展算例分析;李家璐参与实验设计与结果分析;王宏、钟兴黎开展文献调研综述,并参与论文撰写;曾勇杰、周坤、黄美英参与论文修订。所有作者均阅读并同意了论文终稿内容。

本文撰写过程中得到浙江大学文福拴教授、浙江大学海南研究院陈郁林副研究员的指导和帮助,特此感谢!

Funding

National Science and Technology Major Project of China(2026ZD0809803)
Science and Technology Project of China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd.(ZDKJXM20240024)
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