Abstract:

To comprehensively analyze the influence of new energy grid on the energy structure and power structure in China, taking the minimum power generation costs and pollutant emissions as the planning objective functions, this paper constructed an optimization model for new energy and power structure. This model selected the amount of primary energy consumption and new annual generating capacity as the decision variables, and constructed the constraint conditions from many aspects, such as the balance of energy supply and demand, the energy consumption, the balance of power supply and demand, the power consumption and demand, installed capacity and growth rate, etc. Through measuring the optimal energy structure and the scale of new energy development, installed capacity and construction sequence in reference scenario, energy security scenario or low carbon development scenario in China, this paper comparatively analyzed and compared the cost-effectiveness in three scenarios. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was carried out for the total primary energy consumption and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption. The results show that, the greater the development and utilization of new energy scale are, the greater the resources and environmental benefits are, and the less the operation cost and the degree of dependence on foreign energy are. In addition, reducing the fossil energy consumption can be beneficial to reduce the operation cost of energy system

Key words: energy structure, power structure, energy security, low-carbon development, renewable energy