Diffusion Scene Analysis on Supercritical Unit and Ultra Supercritical Units Based on Bass Model

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2015.06.022

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the principle of Bass model， a new model was established for the diffusion effects of the government investment, cost on supercritical units and ultra supercritical unit, with considering the the competition of supercritical units and ultra supercritical units . Research shows that ：（1） compared to the affect of government invest, the cost of supercritical units and ultra supercritical units has less effect to their diffusion trend; (2)in 1.5 times and 2 times of the current investment situation, under the different Q value, the supercritical units eventually installed capacity are about 494.585, 558.39, 622.20 GW and 434, 518, 602 GW while the ultra supercritical units eventually installed capacity are about 905.42, 841.61, 777.81 GW and 966, 882, 798 GW; (3)around 2025 supercritical units and ultra supercritical units will both complete the diffusion process.

Key words: supercritical units, ultra supercritical units, Bass diffusion mode

CLC Number:

TM 621

ZHU Kaiwei， LIU Zhen， LYU Zhichen， PU Gangqing， GUO Wei. Diffusion Scene Analysis on Supercritical Unit and Ultra Supercritical Units Based on Bass Model[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2015, 36(6): 128-133.

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