A Method of Charging Load Forecast Based on Electric Vehicle Time-Space Characteristics

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2015.07.010

Abstract

Abstract:

Electric vehicle charging load forecasting is the precondition for charging infrastructure construction and charging load coordination control. In this paper， considering the stochastic charging behavior， the parking rules of the different functions areas are analyzed， the spatial distribution of different types of electric vehicles are predicted， and the influential factors are analyzed furthermore. The predicting model is set up as a rusult. The overall daily charging loads at different scenarios are calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. Results have shown that the difference of charging load features for different districts is obvious， and the proportion of using quick charge is higher， the difference of peak and valley is greater. According to the predicted results， not only can we guide charging time and place reasonably， but also provide the basis for charging infrastructure construction.

Key words: electric vehicle, charging load forecast, spatial dynamic distribution, Monte Carlo simulation

CLC Number:

TM 75

ZHANG Yanjuan， SU Xiaolin，YAN Xiaoxia， LI Min， LI Dandan. A Method of Charging Load Forecast Based on Electric Vehicle Time-Space Characteristics[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2015, 36(7): 75-82.

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