Power Planning Implementation Deviation Influence on Non-fossil Energy Development Goal

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2015.08.010

Abstract

Abstract:

In recent years, international situation changes and domestic economic restructuring lead to the fluctuation of energy industry development trend during the 12th five year, especially electric power industry. The relative policy and plan have been adjusted. Under these influences, the non-fossil energy 15% objective which would be realized in 2020 during the 13th five year is uncertain. To ensure the realization of this objective, a new energy and electric power planning was provided according to the changes under the new situation. Based on the planning scheme, the sensitivity analysis and the maximum deviation analysis methods were proposed to quantify the influence of the implementation deviation of non-fossil energy planning on the target percentage. And the according suggestions were also provided. The research shows that the main influence factors of the target percentage are the development progresses of hydropower and nuclear power, as well as their output channel construction. Whether the target percentage can reach 15% largely depends on whether the development of hydropower and nuclear power can be completed according to the planning. If the development and utilization of two types of power supplies are not enough to reach the planning objectives, wind power and solar power generation can be increased to remedy the vacancy. But if the vacancy of hydropower exceeds 0.58 billion kw, or that of nuclear power exceeds 0.27 billion kw, the ‘15% objective’ of non-fossil energy cant be achieved. Accelerating the construction of the Sichuan-Tibet hydropower output channel can help to solve the problem of waste water, which is a strong guarantee for the ‘15% objective’ realization of non-fossil energy.

Key words: non-fossil energy, energy and electric power planning, 15% objective, sensitivity analysis, hydropower planning, nuclear power planning

CLC Number:

TM 715

XU Weiting, TANG Quan, WANG Yunling, DAI Songling. Power Planning Implementation Deviation Influence on Non-fossil Energy Development Goal[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2015, 36(8): 61-65.

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