Holiday Load Forecasting Model Considering Related Factor with Unified Correction

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2015.10.015

Abstract

Abstract:

The energy internet is gradually impacting the planning and construction way of power grid, which puts harder request on the prediction technology of related factors. Due to the huge differences between holidays and weekdays and the lack of historic data, the results of load prediction for holidays are not so good. Weather, date and other related factors were corrected by the unified correction model of related factor, and then the data for normal weekdays impacted by unified related factors was obtained. Considering the principle of ‘emphasizing the near and belittling the long’, the relevance of load curves between normal weekdays and holidays was analyzed, and the load forecasting model was proposed based on the point-to-point analogy, which could reduce the prediction error caused by the abnormal historic data automatically. The proposed prediction method was applied to the holiday load forecasting in one of the northern cities and districts in China. The example analysis results show that the prediction accuracy can satisfy the actual requirements, which can provide a certain reference value for the holiday load forecasting of related power sector.

Key words: load forecasting, holiday, related factor, point-to-point analogy

CLC Number:

TM 715

MIAO Jianqiang, TONG Xing, KANG Chongqing. Holiday Load Forecasting Model Considering Related Factor with Unified Correction[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2015, 36(10): 99-104.

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