Saturated Load Forecasting Based on Stages Division Theory of Improved Logistic Model

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2015.10.016

Abstract

Abstract:

The saturated load forecasting of power demand can determine the ultimate size of a regions future grid development and power demand, and the forward power grid planning goals can be used to guide recent grid construction, which can effectively reduce the cost of the reconstruction of power grid, contribute to the work of gradual and methodical renovation and construction of the regional power grid, and has great significance for the regional planning, and the coordinated development between regional economy and power grid. This paper presented the stages division theory of load development based on improved Logistic model, proposed a new definition and meaning for saturated load, and amended and improved the quantified index system for judging power saturated load. Finally, the improved Logistic model was applied to study and analyze the case, the prediction and analysis work of the power saturation scale and saturation time point in the case was completed, and its feasibility was validated.

Key words: saturated load, stages division theory, quantified index system, improved Logistic model

CLC Number:

TM 714

ZHANG Fan，LIU Jiefeng, LI Bing，CHEN Gangliang, JI Jie，XU Kangtai. Saturated Load Forecasting Based on Stages Division Theory of Improved Logistic Model[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2015, 36(10): 105-110.

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