Reliability Analysis of Complex Distribution Network Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Method

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2015.11.003

Abstract

Abstract:

Photovoltaic （PV） generation has characteristics of randomness and intermittent， thus the reliability of distribution network has down-side risk. In distribution network with PV power， the traditional reliability assessment methods often neglect the influence of PV system on the reliability. This paper used the sequential Monte Carlo method to analyze the reliability of distribution network with considering of the impacts of sunlight irradiance， PV output power， timing failure rate and other factors and established a PV system reliability model based on time series. Meanwhile， considering the power of real-time load， the medium and short-term load （month， hour） reliability models were constructed. Finally， this paper introduced reliability sensitivity index to evaluate the reliability after different nodes accessing PV generation system. According to the reliability assessment of distribution network example system with PV generation system， the results prove the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm， which can provide important theoretical significance for the determination of accessing location and capacity of PV， as well as the reliability improvement of distribution network.

Key words: photovoltaic generation, distribution network, intermittent, sequential Monte Carlo method, timing failure rate, reliability sensitivity

CLC Number:

TM 715

LI Jiang， LIU Weibo， LI Guoqing，ZHI Xin， OUYANG Bin， CHEN Xiangyan. Reliability Analysis of Complex Distribution Network Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Method[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2015, 36(11): 17-23.

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