Electricity Market Price Effect Analysis and National Economy Warning Platform Development

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2016.03.001

Abstract

Abstract:

Power industry is essential to the national economy. It is significant to analyze the influence factors and economic effects of price change in electricity market environment and make effective warning of crisis, which can help to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of the national economy. Through the simulation of electricity market trading including thermal power, hydro power, nuclear power, wind power and photovoltaic power, this paper realizes the price effect analysis of size 6 dimensions 180. Based on input-output model, we study the influences of electricity price in domestic market and international exchange rate on the national economy, and establish 4-level warning system including 43 indicators in macroscopic and microcosmic, which can realize the multi-level, multi-index warning of electricity market and national economy. This software is used to simulate and analyze an actual system in Northwest province, and the reliable results are obtained, which can provide theoretical guidance for the new round electricity market reform as well as industrial restructuring and upgrading.

Key words: national economy, price effect analysis, early warning index system, input-output model

CLC Number:

WU Zechen, WANG Xiuli, XIAO Yunpeng, LIU Wei, ZOU Yuntao, DU Chao, CHEN Xinyan. Electricity Market Price Effect Analysis and National Economy Warning Platform Development[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2016, 37(3): 2-7.

References

［1］王锡凡，王秀丽，陈皓勇.电力市场基础［M］.西安：西安交通大学出版社，2003:2-4.
［2］李珞新.行业用电分析［M］. 北京：中国电力出版社, 2002：1-6.
［3］谭显东，胡兆光.我国电力工业在国民经济中的地位和作用研究［J］.能源技术经济，2010，22(11):6-12.
TAN Xiandong，HU Zhaoguang.Study on the position and role of electric power industry in China's economy［J］.Energy Technology and Economics，2010，22(11):6-12.
［4］何永秀，赵四化，李莹，等.中国电力工业与国民经济增长的关系研究［J］.产业经济研究，2006(1):47-53.
HE Yongxiu，ZHAO Sihua，LI Ying，et al.The study of the relationship between power industry and national economy growth in China［J］.Industrial Economics Research，2006(1):47-53.
［5］尤培培，张姣.电价对国民经济各部门的影响研究［J］.商业经济，2011(15):85-87.
YOU Peipei，ZHANG Jiao.Influence of electricity prices on all levels of national economy［J］.Business and Economy，2011(15):85-87.
［6］王锡凡，肖云鹏，王秀丽.新形势下电力系统供需互动问题研究及分析［J］.中国电机工程学报，2014，34(29):5018-5028.
WANG Xifan，XIAO Yunpeng，WANG Xiuli.Study and analysis on supply-demand interaction of power systems under new circumstances［J］.Proceedings of the CSEE，2014，34(29):5018-5028.
［7］王锡凡.包含多个水电机组的电力系统随机生产模拟［J］. 西安交通大学学报，1985，19(4): 69-81.
WANG Xifan.Probabilistic simulation of multiple assigned energy hydroelectric units［J］.Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University，1985，19(4): 69-81.
［8］姚力, 黄镔, 王秀丽, 等. 考虑风火联合外送的互联系统随机生产模拟［J］. 电网技术, 2015, 39(5): 1219-1225.
YAO Li，HUANG Bin，WANG Xiuli，et al.Probabilistic production simulation of interconnected system by considering the joint delivery of wind power and thermal power generation［J］.Power System Technology，2015, 39(5): 1219-1225.
［9］Schweppe F C，Caramanis M C，Tabors R D，et al.Spot pricing of electricity［M］.Kluwer Academ Publishers，1988:32-34.
［10］王建学，张成刚，王秀丽，等.电力市场混合竞价模式及其出清算法［J］.电力系统自动化，2011，35(7):28-33.
WANG Jianxue，ZHANG Chenggang，WANG Xiuli，et al.A mixed bidding mode and its clearing algorithm for electricity market applications［J］.Automation of Electric Power Systems，2011，35(7):28-33.
［11］钟契夫，陈锡康，刘起运.投入产出分析［M］.北京:中国财政经济出版社，1993:208-214.
［12］王蓓蓓，李扬.电力消耗与经济可持续发展关系的投入产出分析［J］.电力自动化设备，2009，29(2):69-72.
WANG Beibei，LI Yang.Relationship between energy consumption and economy sustainable development based on input-output analysis［J］.Electric Power Automation Equipment，2009，29(2):69-72.
［13］秦学志，张康，胡友群,等.基于投入产出原理的CPI价格-消费驱动模型［J］.经济科学，2011(4):28-39.
QIN Xuezhi，ZHANG Kang，HU Youqun，et al.The CPI prices-consumer driven model based on the principle of input and output［J］.Economic Science，2011(4):28-39.
［14］袁志刚，邵挺.人民币升值对我国各行业利润率变动的影响--基于2007年投入产出表的研究［J］.金融研究，2011(4):1-15.
YUAN Zhigang，SHAO Ting.The impact of RMB appreciation on margins of the industry changes-based on 2007 input-output table study［J］.Financial Research，2011(4):1-15.
［15］范金，王艳，梁俊伟.中国进出口价格弹性研究［J］.当代经济科学，2004，26(4):87-92.
FAN Jin，WANG Yan，LIANG Junwei.The study of China's import and export price elasticity［J］.Modern Economic Science，2004，26(4):87-92.

[1]	ZHOU Hongyi1、，QIAN Weihang2、，BAI Jingjing1、，WEI Zhinong2、，SUN Guoqiang2、，ZANG Haixiang. Typical Application Scenarios and Project Review of Energy Blockchain [J]. Electric Power Construction, 2020, 41(2): 11-20.
[2]	ZHANG Zhongdan， LI Jinjian， WANG Xinggui， ZHAO Lingxia. Power Generation Optimization Strategy Based on Static Model for Concentrating Solar Power Plant [J]. Electric Power Construction, 2019, 40(10): 111-117.
[3]	XIE Min，WEI Wei，LI Jianzhao，LIU Mingbo. Research on Combined Dispatching Mode of Energy Storage in Energy Market and Regulation Market [J]. Electric Power Construction, 2019, 40(2): 20-28.
[4]	TIAN Yanjun， CHEN Bo， WANG Yi， WANG Hui， WEI Shilei. Impedance-Coordination Control Strategy in Back-to-Back Converter Systems [J]. Electric Power Construction, 2018, 39(7): 64-73.
[5]	DAI Zhihui，SU Huaibo，LIU Ningning，ZHANG Cheng. Protection Scheme Based on Current Correlation for DC Lines Against Single-pole Ground Faults [J]. Electric Power Construction, 2018, 39(7): 74-80.
[6]	ZHANG Qingqing，WU Qian，LI Shengwei，BAI Xingzhen. Optimal Scheduling of New Energy Integration Considering Different Demand Response Groups [J]. Electric Power Construction, 2018, 39(7): 107-114.
[7]	DONG Lei, MING Jie, MENG Tianjiao, CHEN Naishi, PU Tianjiao. Voltage Control of Active Distribution Network with Flexible DC Devices Based on Model Predictive Control [J]. Electric Power Construction, 2018, 39(7): 123-128.
[8]	PAN Yinji, QIU Xiaoyan, WU Jiawu, XIAO Jiankang. Analysis on Charging Behaviors of Electric Vehicles Based on Markov Decision Processes [J]. Electric Power Construction, 2018, 39(7): 129-137.
[9]	LIN Shunfu, HUANG Nana,ZHAO Lunjia,TANG Bo, LI Dongdong . Domestic Daily Load Curve Modeling Based on User Behavior [J]. Electric Power Construction, 2016, 37(10): 114-.
[10]	ZHU Yongqiang, HAO Jiacheng, TANG Qi, YANG Huina, LI Chunlai. Harmonic Transfer Network Analysis of Large-Scale Photovoltaic Power Plant Electricity Energy Collection System [J]. Electric Power Construction, 2016, 37(10): 122-.
[11]	DANG Qian，ZHANG Huafeng，MA Yanhong，CUI Liang，ZHANG Jun. Menu-Pricing Method for Controllable Load Based on Discrete Choice Model [J]. Electric Power Construction, 2016, 37(1): 110-118.