Wire Price Forecasting of Grid Project Based on EEMD and ARMA

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000－7229.2013.11.008

Abstract

Abstract:

The forecast of wire price in grid project is difficult and the accuracy is low due to the nonlinear and non-stationary property of wire price. Therefore, the EEMD-ARMA model was built. The empirical mode decomposition （EMD） was improved by using ensemble empirical mode decomposition （EEMD）. The history price was decomposed to some smooth and periodic fluctuations components by EEMD, which was used as the input of autoregressive moving-average （ARMA） model to forecast the components price. Finally, the forecast price was obtained by the superimposing of forecast components. Taking the history data of 630/45 wire as samples, the forecast results of EMD-ARMA and EEMD-ARMA was compared, as well as the errors were analyzed, whose results verified that the forecast result by EEMD-ARMA was better than the result by EMD-ARMA in forecast accuracy. The forecast results by applying EEMD-ARMA model have a certain referencial value to the project cost control and the equipment and material bidding.

Key words: ensemble empirical mode decomposition （EEMD）, autoregressive moving-average （ARMA） model, grid wire price, forecast

LU Yanchao，WEN Weining，ZHAO Biao，ZHENG Yan. Wire Price Forecasting of Grid Project Based on EEMD and ARMA[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2013, 34(11): 39-44.

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